Coffee Market Report March 01 2017

With the month of February past, the Indonesia government trade data from Sumatra which is the leading coffee producing island within Indonesia, has reported that the islands robusta coffee exports for the month were 73,760 bags or 44.72% higher than the same month in the previous year, at a total of 238,695 bags.   This contributes to the cumulative exports for the first five months of the present October 2016 to September 2017 coffee year to being 28,504 bags or 1.86% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 1,561,173 bags. 

It has to be noted though that while robusta coffee exports for the present 2016/ 2017 coffee year from Sumatra are so far keeping pace with the volumes exported during the previous 2015/2016 coffee year, that this latter 2015 to 2016 coffee year registered 50.49% lower exports than the previous 2014/ 2015 coffee year and that the 2015/2016 coffee year was in reality a dismal coffee year for the island.  However, with the new crop now on the horizon and forecasted to be a larger new crop, one can expect that by May this year that the islands monthly export volumes shall start to improve and that by October, one shall see a much-improved performance for the present 2016/2017 coffee year.   But unlikely to match the 5.3 million bags exported during the 2015/2015 coffee year. 

The Uganda Coffee Development Authority UCDA have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of January were 70,280 bags or 21.02% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 404,673 bags.    This has contributed to the countries cumulative exports for the first four months of the present October 2016 to September 2017 coffee year to be 297,354 bags or 25.88% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 1,446,295 bags. 

The International Coffee Organisation ICO have reported that global coffee exports for the month of January were 6.7% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 9.84 million bags.   This improved volume contributes to the global coffee exports for the first four months of the present October 2016 to September 2017 coffee year to being 8.9% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 39.98 million bags.    These exports related to a 64.33 to 35.67 ratio of arabica and robusta coffees, which sees the presently tighter supplied robusta coffees quite predictably, losing some market share. 

The leading West African robusta coffee producer the Ivory Coast have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of January were 15,983 bags or 22.7% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 54,433 bags.   

The May to May contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 45.40 usc/Lb., while this equates to 31.84% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.  This once again narrowing arbitrage is now becoming less of an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 2,082 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,330,969 bags.  There were meanwhile a larger in number 8,700 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 27,630 bags. 

The commodity markets encountered a marginally softer U.S. dollar yesterday and despite some negative pressure upon the influential Oil markets, the overall macro commodity index took a positive track for the day.  The Natural Gas, Sugar, Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice, Wheat, Corn, Soybean and Silver markets had a day of buoyancy, while the Oil, Cocoa and Gold markets had a softer day’s trade.   The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.73% higher, to see this Index registered at 426.42.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar showing a degree of buoyancy and trading at 1.237 to Sterling and at 1.056 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is showing buoyancy and is selling at $ 54.05 per barrel. 

The London market started the day yesterday with predictable early buoyancy and followed by a similar positive start for the New York market and with both markets taking a positive track into the early afternoon trade, with both markets starting to add more value.   The London market remained on a steady upside track for the rest of the day, but with the New York market briefly coming under some pressure and briefly heading back to par, before recovering and taking a modest positive track through to the close of the day.  The London market ended the day on a very positive note and with 93.5% of the gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a positive note and with 75% of the earlier gains of the day intact.    This close tends to inspire some degree of confidence and one would think that with most players in Brazil continuing their Carnival holiday today and off the field of play and with producers in general likely to step back to look for a further recovery, that the markets shall encounter a steady start for early trade today against the prices set yesterday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

MAR     2103 + 37                                              MAR   140.70 + 1.60

MAY     2143 + 43                                              MAY    142.60 + 1.50

JUL      2160 + 41                                               JUL    144.90 + 1.45

SEP      2168 + 40                                              SEP    147.20 + 1.45

NOV     2172 + 40                                               DEC   150.30 + 1.40

JAN      2175 + 40                                              MAR   153.40 + 1.40

MAR     2177 + 40                                              MAY   155.25 + 1.40

MAY     2178 + 40                                               JUL    156.80 + 1.40

JUL      2179 + 40                                               SEP    158.30 + 1.35

SEP      2187 + 40                                               DEC   160.40 + 1.35