Market Reports

Coffee Market Report May 30 2017

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Non-Commercial sector of this market decrease their net long position within this market by 9.12% during the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 23rd. May; to register a net long position of 18,894 Lots.  This net long position which is the equivalent of 3,149,000 bags has most likely been little changed, following the period of mixed but overall marginally positive trade that has since followed. 

With the month of May coming to a close and with the coffee export registrations for the month so far in hand, the Vietnam authorities are estimating that the countries coffee exports for the month of May shall be approximately 2 million bags.   This they say shall contribute to the countries cumulative coffee exports for the first five months of the year, to be 14% lower than the same period in the previous year, at approximately 11.8 million bags.   

Yesterday was a long weekend for the coffee markets as it was for most markets, with the U.S.A. markets closed for the Memorial Day long weekend, while the UK markets were closed for the Spring Bank Holiday.  As it was likewise a slow and lacklustre day for the global equity markets, with not only the USA and UK markets off the field of play, but also the Chinese market closed for the Tuen Ng Festival.   The latter is more commonly known globally, as the Dragon Boat Festival.    

Thus, for those who might have missed yesterday’s report, we can repeat below the arbitrage, New York certified stocks and the New York and London market figures below. 

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday, to register this at 40.73 usc/Lb., while this equates to 30.98% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.  This arbitrage may nevertheless become an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 7,523 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 1,469,775 bags.  There were 4,630 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 47,191 bags. 

The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.282 to Sterling and at 1.112 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil firm is near to steady and is selling at $ 51.11 per barrel. 

There has been no striking news coming to the fore for the coffee markets since their close on Friday, but one might think that following the positive close on Friday and with the London market having retained 85.07% of the earlier gains of the day and the New York market 65.52% of the earlier gains of the day, that there might be some degree of caution and a follow through steady start for the markets in early trade today.   Against the prices set on Friday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                      NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

MAY    1961 + 57

JUL     1991 + 57                                          JUL     131.20 + 1.90

SEP     2002 + 52                                          SEP    133.55 + 1.90

NOV    1997 + 46                                          DEC    137.05 + 1.85

JAN     1987 + 41                                          MAR   140.45 + 1.85

MAR    1981 + 41                                          MAY   142.65 + 1.90

MAY    1940 + 40                                          JUL    144.80 + 1.90

JUL     1995 + 36                                          SEP    146.75 + 1.90

SEP     2009 + 36                                          DEC   149.20 + 1.95

NOV    2016 + 36                                         MAR    151.60 + 2.00    


Coffee Market Report May 29 2017

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market increase their net short sold position within the market by 21.40% during the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 23rd May; to register a net short sold position of 15,986 Lots on the day. This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 4,531,960 bags has most likely been little changed to perhaps marginally decreased, following the mixed but overall buoyant trade that has since followed.

The National Coffee Council of El Salvador have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of April were 19,775 bags or 24.31% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 61,555 bags.  This performance has contributed to the countries cumulative exports for the first seven months of the present October 2016 to September 2017 coffee year to being 5.2% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 232,599 bags.

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday, to register this at 40.73 usc/Lb., while this equates to 30.98% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.  This arbitrage may nevertheless become an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 7,523 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 1,469,775 bags.  There were 4,630 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 47,191 bags.

The commodity markets were mixed ahead of the G7 summit meetings on Friday, and a generally firmer day for the energy sector, while the US Dollar registered a better day against other major currencies and the G.B. Pound shed some recent gains. It was a softer day for Cotton, Copper, Sugar, Soybean, markets, a positive finish for Cocoa, Coffee, Corn, Wheat, Orange Juice, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.41% lower, to see this Index registered at 409.45.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.282 to Sterling and at 1.116 to the Euro, North Sea Oil firm in early trade and is selling at $ 51.44 per barrel.
 
The day started immediately positive in both markets with London gapping higher as the session started the day, a similar start in New York met with a degree of selling activity in the early morning session, to send this market back to negative territory for a brief moment.  London continued on a positive track for much of the morning but with sellers reappearing at the top of the market to push this market lower into the afternoon.  The lows tested in both markets however, did not hold sway while external macro factors in the generally more positive mood of the commodity markets in general, provided a boost to these markets as the afternoon progressed.  London and New York continued to post gains as the day progressed toward the close, although New York succumbed to another bout of selling activity to see this market still in the black but steady out into a very narrow range over the last few hours in this market.  A strongly positive day in London saw this market hold on to much of the gains of the day almost to the close, when sellers returned to the floor to weigh in on this market and a softer turn but with much of the gains of the day still intact, ahead of the close in this market.

The coffee markets in London and New York are closed for business today as both markets celebrate respective holidays, the first trading day of the week for coffee and many other markets, will be tomorrow.  The close set on Friday was on a buoyant note after a good volume day in both markets and near to the highs of the day, as follows;

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                      NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

MAY    1961 + 57
JUL     1991 + 57                                          JUL     131.20 + 1.90
SEP     2002 + 52                                          SEP    133.55 + 1.90
NOV    1997 + 46                                          DEC    137.05 + 1.85
JAN     1987 + 41                                          MAR   140.45 + 1.85
MAR    1981 + 41                                          MAY   142.65 + 1.90
MAY    1940 + 40                                          JUL    144.80 + 1.90
JUL     1995 + 36                                          SEP    146.75 + 1.90
SEP     2009 + 36                                          DEC   149.20 + 1.95
NOV    2016 + 36                                         MAR    151.60 + 2.00    


Coffee Market Report May 25 2017

In the latest round of reports released of annual coffee crop reviews, the Unites States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service have published their latest annual crop forecast report on the Ethiopia coffee crop for the coffee marketing year October 2017 to September 2018.  This next crop which is exclusively arabica coffee is forecast to remain steady at 6.54 million bags, of which exports are forecast to hold steady at 3.31 million bags and local coffee consumption, the highest of all coffee consumer countries in Africa, is set to remain stable at an estimated 3.24 million bags.
The Brazilian analyst Safras & Mercado who have estimated that the new Brazil crop is due to come in at 51.1 million bags and made up by 39.6 million bags of arabica coffee and 11.5 million bags of conilon robusta coffee; have reported that the harvest of both conilon robusta which is well underway, and arabica coffee areas harvest started; to have cumulatively reached 11% of total area completed at 16th May, compared with 10% a year earlier.
Within the report Safras & Mercado have made reference to the harvest advancing despite widespread rainfall that has been experienced in recent weeks. The latest short term weather forecasts indicate that the main Brazil arabica coffee districts are due for overcast but temperate weather over the coming weeks, with overnight temperatures comfortably in the double digits Celsius, thus far all indicators are for conducive weather for coffee ripening and harvest, to continue without interruption.
The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 42.14 usc/Lb., while this equates to 32.78% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.  This relatively low arbitrage, may start to become an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 2,741 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,458,091 bags.  There were similarly 2,085 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 57,911 bags.
It was a mixed day for commodity markets yesterday, the news of a credit downgrade assigned to China’s sovereign debt from A1 to Aa3 by an internationally renowned rating agency, rippled through the markets in early Asian trade to post a recovery during the early session.  As the day progressed the markets turned attention to the US Federal Reserve latest meetings for signs of prospective interest rate hikes to come, while the U.S. Dollar lost some ground on the day. It was a lower day in the Energy sector, Oil markets lower, as was the Sugar markets, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Soybean, Gold and Palladium lower on the day. Orange Juice held steady, Cotton, Corn, Silver and Platinum positive on the close. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.58% lower, to see this Index registered at 409.56.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.298 to Sterling and at 1.123 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is steady in early trade and is selling at $ 53.50 per barrel.
 
The London and New York markets started the day with a degree of buoyancy, initially taking a mildly positive track in light volume yesterday.  In almost a mirror reflection as activity picked up pace toward midsession, both markets slipped to below par and held a relatively tight range of trade for a couple of hours leading into the start of the business day in the Americas.  The New York market attracted some fresh underlying buyer support to the floor while London slipped into lower territory, with one sell feeding into another and in the absence of volume underlying buyer activity to prop up the floor in this latter market, on the day.  The upbeat midsession and buoyancy in New York gradually lost momentum into the afternoon with the additional weight of speculative chart based moves to trigger sells stops on the way.  The trading range in New York was relatively tight throughout at 2.70 usc/Lb., between high and low on the prompt month despite fair volume, with a late in the day slight recovery off of the day low.  The softer afternoon track for London robusta market met initially with underlying support to hold the afternoon session in a similar narrow range which slipped lower toward the end of the day and set a close in this market on the low of the day.  The markets finished the day on a softer note, with many market participant countries having a full or semi national holiday today, as today marks both Ascension Day and the start of Ramadhan, the markets set on the close yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                      NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.
MAY    1877 – 31
JUL     1905 – 31                                          JUL     128.55 – 1.70
SEP     1924 – 31                                          SEP    130.95 – 1.70
NOV    1931 – 31                                          DEC    134.50 – 1.65
JAN     1929 – 31                                          MAR   137.95 – 1.60
MAR    1922 – 32                                          MAY   140.20 – 1.60
MAY    1922 – 29                                          JUL    142.40 – 1.55
JUL     1940 – 29                                           SEP   144.40 – 1.50
SEP     1948 – 29                                          DEC   146.65 – 1.40
NOV     1955 – 29                                          MAR  149.20 – 1.45

Coffee Market Report May 24 2017

The well-respected United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service have published their annual report on the Vietnam coffee crop for October 2016 to September 2017, within which they have reviewed their earlier forecast downward, from 26.7 million bags to 26 million bags.  This reduction in estimate is due to unseasonal rains received during the harvest last year and the resultant loss of cherry incurred.  The report foresees exports for current coffee year to reach around 24 million bags.
The forecast for the next Vietnam coffee crop to come in October 2017 to September 2018 is for a total 28.60 million bags, of which an estimated 3.85% will be arabica coffee and the balance robusta production, together with the USDA estimate of coffee stocks brought forward from the previous coffee year to be at 1.38 million bags;  would imply production of al coffee  forecast at 29.98 million bags, while total coffee imports  to Vietnam are anticipated to be at 1.06 million bags in green bean equivalent over the same period.
The United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service have published their report on the Uganda crop for October 2017 to September 2018 coffee year, which they foresee to reach 4.35 million bags in the coming year. Of this, the arabica percentage of overall production stands at 17.25% of total production.  The report anticipates a minimum of carryover stock and with domestic consumption growing but from a relatively low base, the cumulative total is forecast to reach around 4 million bags for exports to fuel the consumer markets with mainly robusta coffees in the coming coffee year. 
The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 43.70 usc/Lb., while this equates to 33.55% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.  This relatively low arbitrage, may start to become an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 7,465 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,455,350 bags.  There were meanwhile 13,642 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 55,826 bags.
It was a mixed and mostly negative day in the commodity markets yesterday, the US Dollar registered a recovery during the session while positive economic indicators coming from Germany assisted to boost investor confidence within the euro zone. It was a steady to firmer day in the Oil markets, a positive close for Robusta coffee and a softer close on the day for Sugar, Cocoa, Arabica coffee, Corn, Orange Juice, Cotton, Soybean and Wheat.  In the precious metals sector, Gold, Silver and Platinum finished softer while Palladium finished on a positive note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.73% lower, to see this Index registered at 411.99.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.297 to Sterling and at 1.117 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is steady in early trade and is selling at $ 53.45 per barrel.
 
The London and New York markets started the day on a positive note and the morning session in both markets held steady above par in limited and light volume.  The day progressed with both markets above par with speculative trade providing direction and a degree of industry buyer support evident although in light volume.  Both markets shed some of the gains toward midsession however, with London finding additional support, to register a recovery toward the end of the day and in the last half hour, as the sellers left the floor, this market finished the day on a positive note, close to the day highs.  The latter day softer trend in New York was tested with buyer support returning to floor in response and to take advantage of the lows, however the range and volume in New York remained narrow and limited throughout the session and with buyers removed, the market resumed a softer track to the end of the day.  Thus, a buoyant session in both markets with an overall softer macro on the day across the commodities sector, a mildly positive close for London and a marginally softer close in New York yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                      NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.
MAY    1908 + 13
JUL     1936 + 11                                          JUL     130.25 – 0.35
SEP     1955 + 11                                          SEP    132.65 – 0.30
NOV    1962 + 10                                          DEC    136.15 – 0.30
JAN     1960 + 12                                          MAR   139.55 – 0.10
MAR    1954 + 13                                          MAY   141.80 – 0.30
MAY    1951 + 11                                          JUL    143.95 – 0.25
JUL     1969 +  9                                           SEP    145.90 – 0.25
SEP     1977 +  9                                           DEC   148.25 – 0.30
NOV     1984 + 9                                           MAR   150.65 – 0.25

Coffee Market Report May 23 2017

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market increase their net short sold position within the market by 21.08% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 16th May; to register a new net short-sold position of 13,045 Lots.   Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market increased their net long position within the market by 0.28%, to register a net long position of 33,767 Lots on the day.
Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market increased their net short sold position within this market by 22.05%, to register a net short sold position of 13,168 Lots.  This net short sold position which is the equivalent of 3,733,069 bags and has most likely been little changed to perhaps marginally decreased, following the mixed trade but overall buoyant trade that has since followed.
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Non-Commercial sector of this market decrease their net long position within this market by 15.02% during the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 16th May; to register a net long position of 20,789 Lots.  This net long position which is the equivalent of 3,464,833 bags has most likely been decreased, following the period of mixed overall softer trade that has since followed.
The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 43.28 usc/Lb., while this equates to 33.14% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.  This relatively low arbitrage, may start to become an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 1,170 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,447,885 bags.  There were meanwhile 403 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 42,184 bags.
The commodity markets had a mixed but overall positive day yesterday, as the political climate in the USA continued to weigh on investor confidence and the US Dollar maintained a softer stance against other major currencies.  The oil markets had a steady to positive day, as was it a positive close for Sugar, Copper, Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Gold, Silver, Palladium, and a softer day for Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, Orange Juice and Platinum. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.41% higher, to see this Index registered at 415.03.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.298 to Sterling and at 1.124 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is steady in early trade and is selling at $ 53.01 per barrel.
 
The London and New York markets started the day on a positive note and the morning session in both markets held steady above par in limited and light volume.  As the day progressed both markets set a lower track, as selling activity weighed into the markets, assisted by a weaker Brazil Real brought about by a degree of investor withdrawal in reaction to the recent turn of political events in the country.  The softer track in both markets moving to midsession initially met with underlying buyer support and a gradual move lower in both markets toward the latter half of the session.  The last three hours of the session in London however, took a more dramatic turn as sellers reappeared with only limited underlying buyer support to prop up the latter half of the session and this market, finished the day on a softer note, on the days lows.  The New York market faired a little better to set a more positive track toward the latter half of the day and register a recovery from the lows in the last hour of the day.  Both markets seemingly devoid of direction and with little in the way of fundamental news to guide sentiment, the markets set the close yesterday after a fair volume day in London and a comparatively limited volume day in New York, on a softer note, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                      NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.
MAY    1895 – 56
JUL     1925 – 52                                          JUL     130.60 – 1.50
SEP     1944 – 54                                          SEP    132.95 – 1.55
NOV    1952 – 52                                          DEC    136.45 – 1.45
JAN     1948 – 56                                          MAR   139.65 – 1.40
MAR    1941 – 60                                          MAY   142.10 – 1.40
MAY    1940 – 61                                          JUL    144.20 – 1.40
JUL     1960 – 61                                          SEP    146.15 – 1.30
SEP     1968 – 61                                          DEC   148.55 – 1.30
NOV     2036 – 6                                           MAR   150.90 – 1.35

Coffee Market Report May 22 2017

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market increase their net short sold position within the market by 22.05% during the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 16th May; to register a net short sold position of 13,168 Lots on the day. This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 3,733,069 bags has most likely been little changed to perhaps marginally decreased, following the mixed but overall buoyant trade that has since followed.
The well-respected United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service have published their report on the Guatemala coffee crop within which they have forecasted that coffee production has registered a year on year decline, attributed to the slow recovery of coffee plantations from rust (roya) epidemic four years ago, whereas the latest lower production forecast is attributed to drought induced conditions during crop development. Their latest forecast for the Guatemala coffee crop for the current October 2016 to September 2017 is for 3.16 million bags, of which green bean exports are forecast to be 2.90 million bags over the same period.  The USDA’s first estimate for the next coffee crop to start harvest in October 2017 is for production at 3.10 million bags and exports for the October 2017 to September 2017 coffee year to reach 2.80 million bags.
The well-respected United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service have published their report on the Brazil crop for the July 2017 to June 2018 coffee year, which they foresee to be biennially lower year on year, at 52.10 million bags.  The forecast details an estimate of 40.5 million bags for arabica production and 11.60 million bags forecast for robusta production.  Thus, with the addition of their beginning stocks estimated at 5.4 million bags, total coffee green coffee supply for the coming year at 57.5 million bags.  In addition to the production and carryover stocks, the report reflects 29.4 million bags estimated for prospective green bean exports to consumer markets over the same period, a relatively stable 3.6 million bags of green bean equivalent in value added export soluble and roast and ground products, to total 33 million bags of estimated coffee usage, whereas the very important local Brazil consumer market is estimated to be growing at a steady pace, the forecast at 20.66 million bags local consumption over the same time.  These estimates are very much in line with other private trade and industry forecasts and while there is still some time ahead, the potential for lower than usual internal carryover coffee stocks into the next Brazil biennial bearing larger crop harvest to come in June 2019 could meanwhile inspire a degree of speculative interest and volatility in the markets as the year progresses toward this next crop flowering and further along cherry development phase in the months to come.
The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened on Friday, to register this at 42.42 usc/Lb., while this equates to 32.12% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.  This still relatively low arbitrage, remains not such an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 4,741 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 1,449,055 bags.  There were meanwhile 1,593 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 42,587 bags.
The commodity markets had a mixed but overall positive day on Friday, in a continuation of U.S. Dollar volatility and a higher day for the leading in influence, oil markets.   It was a positive day across the board with the exception of Cotton, Robusta Coffee, Orange Juice and Palladium finishing on a softer noted. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.93% higher, to see this Index registered at 413.30.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.299 to Sterling and at 1.118 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is showing some degree of buoyancy and selling at $ 53.24 per barrel.
 
The London and New York markets started the day mildly softer in London and with a degree of buoyancy in New York.  The morning session in both markets setting a positive track, with London turning moving back to par and into positive territory as the day progressed.  The market attention to the dramatic turn of events for the Brazil Real witnessed the day before, appeared to dissolve as U.S. Dollar weakness took to the stage, to provide a boost in general to developing economy currencies, including the Real.  The afternoon session in New York held within a narrow range and the latter part of the session, in positive range but off of the days’ highs in this market.  The London market similarly set a positive track for the afternoon but as the day drew to a close the volume of trade thinned and the close for this market, on a mildly softer note, to set the close in both markets on Friday, as follows;
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                      NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.
MAY    1951 –  7                                              
JUL     1977 –  7                                              JUL    132.10 + 2.45
SEP     1998 –  5                                             SEP    134.50 + 2.45
NOV     2006 – 6                                              DEC    137.90 + 2.40
JAN      2004 – 6                                              MAR   141.25 + 2.35
MAR     2001 – 6                                              MAY   143.50 + 2.35
MAY     2001 – 6                                              JUL    145.60 + 2.35
JUL      2021 – 6                                              SEP    147.45 + 2.30
SEP      2029 – 6                                              DEC   149.85 + 2.25
NOV     2036 – 6                                              MAR   152.25 + 2.25

Coffee Market Report May 19 2017

The Food Supply and Statistics Agency in Brazil Conab have with the new crop in Brazil starting, forecasted that the new Brazil crop shall potentially be 11.3 million bags lower than the last year’s crop, at approximately 45.6 million bags.  The report is however quite open to variances, in that it indicates that the new arabica coffee crop might be as low as 35 million bags and as high as 37.88 million bags, while the new conilon robusta coffee crop that is already in full harvest, shall be 10.1 million bags.   Thus, indicating the new crop at between 45.1 million and 47.98 million bags, while one might note that the higher end of the forecast is more in line with many other private trade and industry forecasts.  

This report though had little impact upon market sentiment for the day as the focus rather was on the renewed political problems and the resulting sharp decline in the value of the Brazil Real that fell from the previous day’s value of 3.11 to the U.S. dollar to dip to below 3.4 to the dollar and end the day at 3.35 to the dollar.   This sharp decline bringing forth speculation of increasing coffee selling activity out of Brazil and having a negative impact upon the fortunes of the New York market, which lead the coffee markets back onto a bearish track for the day.   As did the dip in the value of the Brazil real and with Brazil a leading commodity exporter, have an impact upon most markets that relate to commodities coming out of Brazil in volume.     

The well-respected United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service have published their report on the Colombian coffee crop within which they have forecasted that coffee production for the present October 2016 to September 2017 coffee year shall be 14.5 million bags, which will be followed by a 0.68% increase for the follow-on October 2017 to September 2018 coffee year, which they forecast at 14.6 million bags. 

This the USDA anticipate shall fuel green coffee exports for the present coffee year of 12.2 million bags for the present coffee year of 12.2 million bags, which shall be followed by green coffee exports of 12.25 million bags for the October 2017 to September 2018 coffee year.   They have likewise forecasted value added soluble coffee exports for the present coffee year of the equivalent of 850,000 bags, which they anticipate to remain unchanged for the follow-on October 2017 to September 2018 coffee year. 

Thus, with unforeseen negative weather issues aside, the USDA remain positive in terms of the contribution from Colombia for the foreseeable future, which is heartening news for the countries coffee industry.  An industry that has recovered from coffee production that dipped below 8 million bags, as recently as the October 2011 to September 2012 coffee year.  Albeit that the Coffee Federation of Colombia are still targeting even higher production levels for the countries coffee industry and its over 560,000 coffee farming families, in the coming five years.   

The well-respected United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service have published their report on the Indonesian coffee crop for the coming October 2017 to September 2018 coffee year, which they foresee shall bring forth and unchanged arabica coffee crop of 1.3 million bags and 300,000 bags or 3.23% larger robusta crop of 9.6 million bags.   This resulting in an overall 300,000 bags or 2.83% larger new crop for the coming coffee year, of 10.9 million bags.  

Added to this production the USDA anticipate that Indonesia shall also import 300,000 bags of green coffee in the coming coffee year and along with imports of the equivalent of 400,000 bags of coffee in the form of soluble coffees, to fuel overall coffee supply for the coming October 2017 to September 2018 coffee year of 11,649,000 bags of coffee.  This they foresee with an anticipated domestic consumption of for the coming coffee year of 3.4 million bags, shall allow for 160,000 bags or 1.99% increase in coffee exports for the coming coffee year made up from 7.3 million bags of green coffees, 50,000 bags of value added roast and ground coffees and the equivalent of 850,000 bags of value added soluble coffee exports.  

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 39.66 usc/Lb., while this equates to 30.59% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.  This still relatively low arbitrage, remains not such an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 1,123 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,444,314 bags.    There were meanwhile a larger in number 2,509 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 44,180 bags. 

The commodity markets had a mixed but overall softer day yesterday, with overall macro commodity index taking a softer track for the day.  The Oil, Natural Gas and Cocoa markets had a day of buoyancy, while the Sugar, Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice, Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets had a softer day’s trade.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.69% lower, to see this Index registered at 409.49.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.294 to Sterling and at 1.111 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is showing some degree of buoyancy and selling at $ 52.15 per barrel. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday on the back foot, with both markets moving back into negative territory and taking softer track into the early afternoon trade.   As the afternoon progressed and most certainly with the issues of the Brazil real very much a headline, the New York market continued to lose weight and the London market to a lesser extent and while the New York market tended to steady at the lows and take a sideways soft track, the London market did manage to recover from the lows and to limit the losses of the day. 

The London market ended the day on a soft note but having recovered 64.9% of the earlier losses of the day, while the New York market ended the day on a very soft note and with 93.1% of the earlier losses of the day intact.   This close does little to inspire and one might expect that there can be little better than a near to steady start for early trade today against the prices set yesterday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

MAY     1958 – 12                                               MAY   127.40 – 4.80

JUL      1984 – 13                                               JUL    129.65 – 4.75

SEP      2003 – 14                                              SEP    132.05 – 4.70

NOV     2012 – 14                                              DEC    135.50 – 4.70

JAN      2010 – 17                                              MAR   138.90 – 4.70

MAR     2007 – 17                                              MAY   141.15 – 4.70

MAY     2007 – 18                                              JUL    143.25 – 4.65

JUL      2007 – 18                                              SEP    145.15 – 4.65

SEP      2035 – 18                                              DEC   147.60 – 4.65

NOV     2042 – 18                                              MAR   150.00 – 4.65


Coffee Market Report May 18 2017

The well-respected United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service have published their report on the Peru coffee crop within which and with the new crop harvest now starting, they foresee 300,000 bags or 7.14% increase in the volume of this new crop, which they estimate shall be 4.5 million bags.   These coffees entering the market at a time when the shipments of the new crops from Mexico and Central America will have peaked, to join the new Mitaca crop coffees from Colombia and to assure the consumer market buyers of a steady flow of fine washed arabica coffees through to the start at the end of the year of the new Mexican and Central American crops.  

There are however reports still coming out of Colombia on the unseasonal heavy rains within some of the coffee districts, which is tending to interfere with the progress of the new Mitaca crop coffee harvest for many farmers and in some instances, to delay cherry maturity and harvest.   This is with most mills and exporters holding significant forward sales commitments, causing some problems in terms of shipping on time.   It is however the start of the slower summer roasting season for the main stream consumers and thus one might speculate, that these delays might for the present, not have any serious impact. 

The well-respected United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service have published their report on the Indian coffee crop for the coming October 2017 to September 2018 coffee year, which they foresee shall bring forth 60,000 bags or 4.22% larger arabica coffee crop of 1.48 million bags and 220,000 bags or 5.87% larger robusta crop of 3.97 million bags.   This resulting in an overall 280,000 bags or 5.52% larger new crop for the coming coffee year, of 5.45 million bags.  

The United States Department of Agriculture do however note that the Indian domestic coffee consumption is approximately 1.215 million bags, but they anticipate that India shall import approximately 1.18 million bags in the coming coffee year, to supplement the estimated 1,583,000 bags of coffee that the country exports in terms of value added soluble coffees.    Thus, indicating that the new crop should be able to fuel green coffee exports of approximately 3.8 million bags. 

In terms of Indian domestic coffee consumption, one has to note that the price sensitive main stream coffee brands have high percentages of chicory added to the coffees, which would in terms of the estimated domestic coffee market volumes, most probably double up the quoted figures in terms of actual consumption under the coffee banner.    Some brands the Coffee Board of India comments, can have in excess of 60% chicory added and is a factor that the Board is trying to counter, so as to encourage improved domestic market support for the countries coffee farmers. 

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened yesterday, to register this at 43.82 usc/Lb., while this equates to 32.6% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.  This still relatively low arbitrage, remains not such an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 5,462 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,443,191 bags.    There were meanwhile a smaller in number 3,036 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 46,689 bags. 

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange were seen to decrease by 16.833 bags or 0.59% over the week of trade leading up to Monday 15th. May, to see these stocks registered at 2,849,500 bags, on the day.  

The commodity markets unlike the equity markets and with the U.S. dollar under some degree of pressure, had generally good day yesterday and with the overall macro commodity index taking a positive track for the day.   The Oil, Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, Grains, Gold and Silver markets had a day of buoyancy, while the Copper market had a softer day’s trade.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.61% higher, to see this Index registered at 412.344.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.294 to Sterling and easier at 1.113 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is near to steady and selling at $ 51.45 per barrel. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday with modes buoyancy but soon coming under pressure and with the both markets dipping back into negative territory for the early afternoon trade, but this was short lived and with the assistance of thin producer selling pressure over both markets and the positive nature of the overall macro commodity index, there was soon a recovery.   This started both market on a steady upside track for the rest of the day and particularly so for the New York market, which attracted buy stop on it way north. 

The London market ended the day on a positive note and with 77.6% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a very positive note and with 92.2% of the earlier gains of the day intact.  This close might assist to buoy confidence a little but many might remain uncertain and wish to see if the recovery shall be sustained, before buying into the halt to the recent downside track of the markets.  Thus, one might expect to see little better than a hesitantly steady to modestly buoyant start for early trade today against the prices set yesterday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

MAY     1970 + 39                                              MAY   132.20 + 2.95

JUL      1997 + 38                                              JUL    134.40 + 2.95

SEP      2017 + 37                                              SEP    136.75 + 2.90

NOV     2026 + 38                                              DEC    140.20 + 2.90

JAN      2027 + 36                                              MAR   143.60 + 2.80

MAR     2024 + 35                                              MAY   145.85 + 2.75

MAY     2025 + 33                                              JUL    147.90 + 2.65

JUL      2045 + 33                                              SEP    149.80 + 2.70

SEP      2053 + 33                                              DEC   152.25 + 2.75

NOV     2060 + 33                                              MAR   154.65 + 2.75


Coffee Market Report May 17 2017

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 42.59 usc/Lb., while this equates to 32.40% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.  This still relatively low arbitrage, remains not such an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 5,298 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,437,729 bags.    There were meanwhile 4,075 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 49,725 bags.
The commodity markets had a mixed to softer day yesterday, although other key economic data reflected positively, the latest round of housing data to come from leading economy U.S.A., reported a decline and these figures received with some concern by the markets.  This in combination with uncertainty that has been created by the latest round of political interplay within the same country, saw the US Dollar slip to the weakest level in more than six months.  The Oil markets were mixed but overall softer on the day, as was it a lower day for Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, Orange Juice, Wheat and Corn.  It was a firmer day for Sugar, Copper, Soybean, Silver and Platinum, although a softer day for Palladium while safe haven Gold finished firmer on the day. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.12% lower, to see this Index registered at 409.84.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.292 to Sterling and easier at 1.11 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is softer in early trade and selling at $ 50.53 per barrel.
 
The London and New York markets started the day on a mildly softer note yesterday and in modest volume as the trading day began.   Both markets took a more buoyant turn as the morning progressed with both markets pushing into positive and above par with the assistance of speculative buyer support. The day turned moderately softer as the America’s came to floor at the start of their business day, to set a softer track in New York that steadily and in a narrow trading range, moved south to the close of the day.  A similar pattern in London with a limited move upwards right at the end of the session to see this market finish just above the day lows, to set the close yesterday, on a softer note for both markets, as follows: 
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.
MAY     1931 – 10                                              MAY   129.25 – 2.00
JUL      1959 – 10                                              JUL    131.45 – 2.00
SEP      1980 –   9                                              SEP    133.85 – 1.95
NOV     1988 –   9                                              DEC    137.30 – 1.90
JAN      1991 –   9                                              MAR   140.80 – 1.85
MAR     1989 –   9                                              MAY   143.10 – 1.75
MAY     1992 –   9                                              JUL    145.25 – 1.75
JUL      2012 –   4                                              SEP    147.10 – 1.75
SEP      2020 –   4                                              DEC   149.50 – 1.80
NOV     2027 –   4                                              MAR   151.90 – 1.80

Coffee Market Report May 16 2017

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market decrease their net short sold position within the market by 13.74% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 9th May; to register a new net short-sold position of 10,774 Lots.   Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market increased their net long position within the market by 4.80%, to register a net long position of 33,672 Lots on the day.
Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market decreased their net short sold position within this market by 17.2%, to register a net short sold position of 10,789 Lots.  This net short sold position which is the equivalent of 3,058,633 bags and following the period of mixed but overall more positive trade that has since followed, has most likely been little changed to perhaps marginally increased, following the mixed trade that has followed.
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Non-Commercial sector of this market increase their net long position within this market by 200 Lots during the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 9th May; to register a net long position of 24,464 Lots.  This net long position which is the equivalent of 4,077,333 bags has most likely been little changed, following the period of mixed trade that has since followed.
The Green Coffee Association of the U.S.A. have announced that the countries port warehouse stocks increased by 165,497 bags or 2.46% during the month of April, to register these stocks at 6,890,354 bags at the end of the month.   This is the record highest figure for the these stocks, since this data started being recorded and assessed in January 2002.   These stocks do not include the in-transit bulk container coffees or the onsite roaster inventories, which with an approximate combined U.S.A. and Canadian weekly consumption that is supported by these stocks of 560,000 bags per week, would conservatively have been at least 1.1 million bags. If one is to consider the additional unreported stocks the end month stocks, this would equate to an estimate of 14 weeks of roasting activity, which may be considered a very safe reserve. 
The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets held steady yesterday, to register this at 44.14 usc/Lb., while this equates to 33.07% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.  This still relatively low arbitrage, remains not such an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 1,801 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,432,431 bags.    There were meanwhile 6,178 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 45,650 bags.
The commodity markets had a buoyant day yesterday, as two leading oil producer nations, Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed their intent to maintain the prevailing oil supply limits into 2018 to provide a boost to the oil markets on the day.  The US Dollar had a softer day against a basket of other major currencies.  The Oil markets were firmer on the day, as was it a positive day for Sugar, Cocoa, Cotton, Copper, Soybean, markets.  It was a steady day for Gold, and a positive finish for Silver and Platinum, although a softer day for Palladium, Coffee, Orange Juice, Wheat, and Corn, all lower on the day. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.03% higher, to see this Index registered at 410.36.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.291 to Sterling and at 1.0994 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is firmer in early trade and selling at $ 51.11 per barrel.
 
The London and New York markets started the day on a marginally firmer note yesterday, although short lived as both markets met with speculative seller activity as the morning progressed, to push both markets below the opening levels, with trade volumes relatively muted in London and in a tight range in New York.  With little in the way of fresh fundamental news to guide direction, the markets drifted lower toward the latter half of the day with underlying supportive buyer activity dwindling toward the end of the session, to see both markets post fresh lows as the trading day drew to a close, with London posting a close on the low of the day in this market and New York, marginally above the low of the day, after an overall restrained and quiet session for both markets, the close was set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.
MAY     1941 – 25                                              MAY   131.25 – 1.35
JUL      1969 – 25                                              JUL    133.45 – 1.50
SEP      1989 – 24                                              SEP    135.80 – 1.50
NOV     1997 – 24                                              DEC    139.20 – 1.45
JAN      2000 – 24                                              MAR   142.65 – 1.40
MAR     1998 – 25                                              MAY   144.85 – 1.45
MAY     2001 – 25                                              JUL    146.95 – 1.45
JUL      2016 – 25                                              SEP    148.85 – 1.40
SEP      2024 – 25                                              DEC   151.30 – 1.40
NOV     2031 – 25                                              MAR   153.65 – 1.40

Coffee Market Report May 15 2017

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market decrease their net short sold position within the market by 17.2% during the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 9th May; to register a net short sold position of 10,789 Lots on the day. This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 3,058,633 bags has most likely been little changed to perhaps marginally increased, following the mixed but overall positive trade that has since followed.

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened on Friday, to register this at 44.50 usc/Lb., while this equates to 32.98% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.  This still relatively low arbitrage, remains not such an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 3,520 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 1,430,630 bags.    There were meanwhile 3,715 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 39,472 bags.

The commodity markets were mixed on Friday, with lower than anticipated U.S. retail sales data released on Friday in mixed reaction.  The US Dollar lost some ground on the day, against a basket of other major currencies.  The Oil markets had a steady to lower day, and a softer day for Sugar, Wheat, Soybean and Platinum markets, whereas it was a more positive day for Cocoa, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice, Corn, Gold, Silver and Palladium markets.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.74% higher, to see this Index registered at 410.23.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.292 to Sterling and at 1.0938 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is firmer in early trade and selling at $ 50.30 per barrel.
 
The coffee markets opened the day on Friday on a marginally softer note in modest trade volumes.   It was a relatively quiet day overall for London and a fair volume day in New York as the morning session moved into positive territory.  The day progressed with both London and New York continuing on a positive track, although within a narrow range for New York and a degree of buoyancy leant support from the softer US Dollar on the day.  Both markets shed some of the gains made, toward the latter half of the session to set the close on Friday, in positive territory but off the days’ highs and nearer to the middle of the day trading range in New York, and closer to the top of the days’ range in London, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

MAY     1966 + 15                                             MAY   132.60 + 0.70
JUL      1994 + 10                                             JUL    134.95 + 0.70
SEP      2013 + 10                                             SEP    137.30 + 0.65
NOV     2021 + 10                                             DEC    140.65 + 0.70
JAN      2024 + 10                                             MAR   144.05 + 0.65
MAR     2023 +   9                                             MAY   146.30 + 0.70
MAY     2026 +   9                                             JUL    148.40 + 0.80
JUL      2041 +   9                                             SEP    150.25 + 0.70
SEP      2049 +   9                                             DEC   152.70 + 0.70
NOV     2047 +   9                                             MAR   155.05 + 0.70


Coffee Market Report May 12 2017

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 44.26 usc/Lb., while this equates to 32.97% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.  This still relatively low arbitrage, remains not such an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 7,049 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,427,110 bags.    There were meanwhile 2,350 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 43,187 bags.

The commodity markets encountered a steadier to positive day yesterday, as the US Dollar registered a degree of stability.  It was a firmer day for the influential Oil markets, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice, Wheat, God, Silver, Platinum and Palladium.  Although a softer day posted for Sugar, Coffee, Corn and Soybean. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.24% higher, to see this Index registered at 407.22.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.288 to Sterling and at 1.0866 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is firmer in early trade and selling at $ 49.11 per barrel.
 
The London and New York markets started the day yesterday on a steady note to turn mildly positive in the early part of the session.  The early morning upward momentum was however, met with seller pressure overhead to shed the early gains and drift back to par by midmorning, where the markets were additionally steered into negative territory with speculative selling activity driving direction.  As the afternoon progressed New York posted a mild recovery south of par and flattened out into a lower but narrow range for the rest of the day.  The trend was mirrored in London with underlying buyer activity becoming more active at the lows, this market which had regained some lost ground toward late afternoon remained in negative territory to the close. The markets set the close yesterday after a fair to good volume day in negative territory, to set the close just above the days’ lows in both markets, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

MAY     1951 – 30                                             MAY   131.90 – 2.40
JUL      1984 – 30                                             JUL    134.25 – 2.40
SEP      2003 – 29                                             SEP    136.65 – 2.35
NOV     2011 – 30                                             DEC    139.95 – 2.35
JAN      2014 – 30                                             MAR   143.40 – 2.25
MAR     2014 – 31                                             MAY   145.60 – 2.25
MAY     2017 – 31                                             JUL    147.60 – 2.30
JUL      2032 – 31                                             SEP    149.55 – 2.25
SEP      2040 – 31                                             DEC   152.00 – 2.20
NOV     2047 – 31                                              MAR   154.35 – 2.15


Coffee Market Report May 11 2017

The well-respected Brazilian analysts Safras & Mercado and with the new conilon robusta coffee crop in full harvest and the new arabica coffee crop cherries getting close to maturity, have forecasted that this new crop shall be 51.1 million bags.  This forecast is based upon what they foresee to be 6.3 million bags or 13.72% lower new arabica coffee crop of 39.6 million bags and 1.9 million bags or 19.79% higher new conilon robusta coffee crop of 11.5 million bags. 

This report is not unexpected as over the past few months there has been no noise out of Brazil, in terms of new crop scare stories and by the very nature of the silence, the indication that the anticipated smaller overall new Brazil crop would not be as dramatically lower as many had been forecasting late last year and early this year.   This report does nevertheless indicate that there shall be a tightening of overall global arabica coffee supply for the next twelve months, but this with the prevailing good volumes of consumer arabica coffee stocks, is not really too much of a threat to medium to longer term consumer market arabica coffee supply. 

While with the report tending to confirm some other recent reports that the new conilon robusta coffee crop shall be larger than many had been forecasting early this year and against dry weather for the state of Espirito Santo, it tends to confirm that there is now some relief due for the domestic roasting industry in Brazil.   Albeit that even with an improved new conilon robusta coffee crop, that it shall only really get close to the demands of the domestic roasting industry in Brazil and does not indicate much potential for Brazil to export significant volumes of conilon coffee for the next twelve months. 

One might speculate thought that with a larger new conilon robusta coffee crop due to come into play and with the domestic roasting industry in Brazil having competed over the last twelve months for the lower quality arabica coffees, that there is likely to be less demand from the soluble coffee roasters for these coffees for the next twelve months.   Thus, allowing for more of these coffees to be utilised by the countries roast and ground domestic roasters and by nature, lessening the impact of a smaller arabica coffee crop upon the arabica coffees that shall be available for export through to next year’s potentially larger 2018 crop. 

Reports from Colombia indicate that many coffee districts have been receiving somewhat unseasonal rains and that this is impacting upon the middle year Mitaca crop, which is being delayed by four to six weeks within these districts.  So far, these reports do not really indicate any potential significant dip in medium term production volumes, but more so a delay in the impact of the Mitaca crop volumes.   While one would suggest that with good volumes of Central American coffees still coming to the market, that the delay shall not cause much concern over medium term fine washed arabica coffee supply.  

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened yesterday, to register this at 45.30 usc/Lb., while this equates to 33.15% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.  This still relatively low arbitrage, remains not such an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 5,960 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,420,061 bags.    There were meanwhile a larger in number 6,417 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 40,837 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday but with the influential Oil markets posting a recovery, it assisted to buoy the fortunes of the overall macro commodity index for the day.   The Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, New York arabica Coffee, Wheat, Corn, Gold and Silver markets had a day of buoyancy, while the Cocoa, London robusta Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice and Soybean markets had a softer day’s trade.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.58% higher, to see this Index registered at 406.23.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.294 to Sterling and at 1.087 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is steady and is selling at $ 48.50 per barrel. 

The London market ended the day on a marginally negative note, while the New York market started the day trading around par.  The New York market did however start to pick up support and the markets entered the early afternoon trade with the London market remaining south of par and the New York market, maintaining its buoyancy.    As the afternoon progressed the London market took a pip up into positive territory but quickly fell back into modest negative territory and to take an erratic sideways negative track for the rest of the day, while the New York market continued on a steady upside track for the day.  

The London market ended the day on a modestly negative note and with 42.9% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a positive note and with 90.9% of the earlier gains of the day intact.   The soft nature of the London market for the day was not very dramatic and countered by the relatively positive nature of the New York market which assists to paint something of a positive technical picture for the markets and one might think that the markets might be due for something of a close to steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

MAY     1981 – 10                                              MAY   134.30 + 1.50

JUL      2014 – 6                                                JUL    136.65 + 1.50

SEP      2032 – 7                                               SEP    139.00 + 1.50

NOV     2041 – 7                                                DEC   142.30 + 1.45

JAN      2044 – 8                                               MAR   145.65 + 1.40

MAR     2045 – 8                                               MAY   147.85 + 1.40

MAY     2048 – 8                                                JUL    149.90 + 1.45

JUL      2063 – 6                                                SEP    151.80 + 1.45

SEP      2071 – 6                                                DEC   154.20 + 1.45

NOV     2078 – 6                                                MAR   156.50 + 1.45


Coffee Market Report May 10 2017

The much-debated issue of the Brazil governments authorisation and the stalling of such authorisation of imports of robusta coffee to supplement the tight supply of conilon robusta coffees over the past year is still a matter of debate, with the news from the Brazil Department of Trade and industry that so far it had authorised the import of only 5,893 bags.   However, there has so far not been a bag of coffee imported, while the relatively minimal numbers that are involved with this matter, are unlikely to have any impact upon sentiment within the London market. 

One might speculate that with the new conilon robusta coffee crop in Brazil now in full swing and good volumes of new crop conilon coffees available to the domestic roasters and roasters of value add export soluble coffees, that there is little inspiration to wish to continue to lobby for authority to import robusta coffees.   Especially so that if one is to proceed with such imports, the risk of phytosanitary control rejections on arrival in Brazil, is very high and potentially not worth the investment and effort. 

The Vietnam Department of customs have announced that the countries coffee exports for the month of April were 852,384 bags or 27.5% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 2,246,983 bags.   A number that is likewise 19,8% lower than the previous month and contributes to the countries cumulative coffee exports for the first four months of the present coffee year to being 11% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 9,802,017 bags. 

These lower numbers are not unexpected, following the smaller new Vietnam crop that came in over October 2016 and January 2017, which has generally been reported by the usually reliable trade and industry players to have been something between 24 million and 25 million bags.   This crop of course needing to also fuel a domestic market demand of close to 3 million bags, which shall reduce the availability of coffees for export.  

But based on the April export numbers and the exports for the first four months of this year and taking into account that there were carryover stocks to cover approximately 60% of the export demand for the last quarter of last year, it indicates that there shall be steady export volumes of robusta coffees from Vietnam through to the potentially larger new crop in October.  Albeit that these Vietnam robusta coffee export volumes shall most certainly not match the volumes for the same period last year, which shall fuel increased demand from the consumer markets from the other robusta producers for the next six months. 

Brazil with a better but not significantly substantial new conilon robusta coffee crop this year is unlikely to contribute, but there is improved supply from Indonesia and Uganda.   Albeit that these producers are not expected to completely eliminate the prevailing overall deficit in global robusta coffee supply, which is expected to continue for the next six months.   This factor one would think, shall assist to maintain the prevailing buoyancy for the related London coffee market, for the short to medium term. 

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 43.52 usc/Lb., while this equates to 32.2% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.  This still relatively low arbitrage, remains not such an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 985 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,414,101 bags.    There were meanwhile a larger in number 2,225 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 34,420 bags. 

The commodity markets encountered some renewed muscle for the U.S. dollar yesterday and while mixed in trade, the overall macro commodity index took a softer track for the day.   The Natural Gas, Sugar, Cocoa, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice, Corn and Soybean markets had a day of buoyancy, while the Oil, Coffee, Wheat, Gold and Silver markets had a softer day’s trade.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.42% lower, to see this Index registered at 403.88.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar near to steady and trading at 1.296 to Sterling and at 1.089 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is steady and is selling at $ 47.15 per barrel. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday on a hesitantly steady note, but with the both markets slipping back into modest negative territory in early afternoon trade.   As the afternoon progressed the London market moved briefly moved back into positive territory and the New York market back towards par, but this was short lived and the London market slipped back below par, while the New York market lost relatively more weight and moved into negative territory and with the markets maintaining as softer sideways stance through to the close.  

The London market ended the day on a negative note but having recovered 63.2% of the earlier losses of the day by the close, while the New York market ended the day on a negative note and with 83.3% of the earlier losses of the day intact.  This reversal of the fortunes for the markets does not paint a very clear picture and does little to buoy confidence and one might expect little better than a near to steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

MAY     1991 – 11                                              MAY   132.80 – 1.75

JUL      2020 – 7                                                JUL    135.15 – 1.75

SEP      2039 – 6                                               SEP    137.50 – 1.70

NOV     2048 – 6                                                DEC   140.85 – 1.80

JAN      2052 – 6                                               MAR   144.25 – 1.85

MAR     2053 – 6                                               MAY   146.45 – 1.90

MAY     2056 – 4                                                JUL    148.45 – 1.95

JUL      2069 – 1                                                SEP    150.35 – 1.95

SEP      2077 – 1                                                DEC   152.75 – 1.95

NOV     2084 – 1                                                MAR   155.05 – 1.90


Coffee Market Report May 09 2017

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market increase their net short sold position within the market by 42.44% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 2nd. May; to register a new net short-sold position of 12,491 Lots.   Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market increased their net long position within the market by 2.12%, to register a net long position of 32,128 Lots on the day. 

Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market increased their net short sold position within this market by 44.7%, to register a net short sold position of 12,654 Lots.  This net short sold position which is the equivalent of 3,587,353 bags and following the period of mixed but overall more positive trade that has since followed, has most likely been marginally reduced and likewise, that of the Managed Money fund sector of the market. 

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Non-Commercial sector of this market decrease their net long position within this market by 14.29% during the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 2nd. May; to register a net long position of 24,264 Lots.  This net long position which is the equivalent of 4,044,000 bags has most likely been little changed, following the period of mixed but overall marginally positive trade that has since followed. 

The coffee markets are meanwhile devoid of any striking fundamental news items at present, as is the physical coffee trade lacklustre in nature and physical trade is having little impact upon the fortunes of the coffee terminal markets.   But the markets have stabilised for the present and are taking a somewhat sideways track, which is perhaps supportive for some degree of cautious confidence coming to the fore in the coming weeks. 

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened yesterday, to register this at 44.96 usc/Lb., while this equates to 32.84% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.  This still relatively low arbitrage, remains not such an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to be unchanged yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,413,116 bags.    There were meanwhile 6,140 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 32,195 bags. 

The commodity markets mixed in trade yesterday, but with many markets remaining on the back foot and the overall macro commodity index taking a sideways track for the day.   The breakfast commodities Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee and Orange Juice had a day of buoyancy and the Gold and Silver markets were steady, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Cotton, Copper, Wheat, Corn and Soybean markets had a softer day’s trade.   The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.18% higher, to see this Index registered at 405.59.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.294 to Sterling and at 1.092 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is near to steady and is selling at $ 47.20 per barrel. 

The London market started the day yesterday with early buoyancy and the New York market trading close to par and with the markets retaining this stance, into the early afternoon trade.   As the afternoon progressed there seemed to be some degree of confidence coming into play and with both markets shrugging off some short spells of negative pressure, to take a positive track through to the close.  

The London market ended the day on a very positive note and with 96.2% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a positive note and with 85.7% of the earlier gains of the day intact.   This close and with the markets ending the day at the higher end of the day’s trading range that assists to paint a better technical picture for the markets, is likely to assist to buoy confidence and one might expect to see a follow through steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

MAY     2002 + 25                                              MAY   134.55 + 1.45

JUL      2027 + 25                                              JUL    136.90 + 1.20

SEP      2045 + 26                                             SEP    139.20 + 1.20

NOV     2054 + 27                                              DEC   142.65 + 1.15

JAN      2058 + 28                                             MAR   146.10 + 1.10

MAR     2059 + 29                                             MAY   148.35 + 1.15

MAY     2060 + 30                                              JUL    150.40 + 1.20

JUL      2070 + 30                                              SEP    152.30 + 1.20

SEP      2078 + 30                                              DEC   154.70 + 1.15

NOV     2085 + 30                                              MAR   156.95 + 1.15


Coffee Market Report May 08 2017

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market increase their net short sold position within the market by 44.7% during the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 2nd. May; to register a net short sold position of 12,654 Lots on the day. This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 3,587,353 bags has most likely been little changed to perhaps marginally decreased again, following the mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed. 

The Colombian Coffee Federation have reported that the countries coffee production for the month of April was 209,000 bags or 20.04% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 834,000 bags.   This dip in production does however follow many months of improved production volumes and contributes to the countries cumulative coffee production for the first seven months of the present October 2016 to September 2017 coffee year to being 443,000 bags or 5.28% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 8,833,000 bags. 

In terms of coffee exports from Colombia the Coffee Federation have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of April were 30,000 bags or 3.31% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 936,000 bags.   This contributes to the countries cumulative exports for the first seven months of the present October 2016 to September 2017 coffee year to being 635,000 bags or 8.21% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 8,369,000 bags. 

These are despite the dip in production for the month of April, still impressive figures, albeit that it does seemingly indicate a slow start to this year’s Mitaca crop this year.   It is however, still early days for this two crop producer in terms of the usually smaller Mitaca crop, to speculate that the country might still not end the coffee year with production at close to 15 million bags.   

Colombian coffees that are competing within the mainstream consumer markets with what have been overall good flows of fine washed arabica coffees from the neighbouring producer bloc of Mexico and Central America and shortly, from the flow of new crop fine washed arabica coffees from Peru and into what is seen to be well stocks consumer market.    But with talks of dry weather from some of the Colombian coffee districts in recent weeks, there will no doubt be keen interest foreseen for the coffee production levels that shall be reported over the coming three months. 

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened on Friday, to register this at 44.89 usc/Lb., while this equates to 33.08% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.  This still relatively low arbitrage, remains not such an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 1,735 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 1,413,116 bags.    There was meanwhile a larger in number 4,810 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 26,055 bags. 

The commodity markets mixed in trade on Friday, with many markets attracting some buoyancy and the overall macro commodity index taking a positive track for the day.    The Oil, Natural Gas, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Wheat, Corn and Soybean markets had a positive day’s trade, while the Sugar, Cotton, Orange Juice, Gold and Silver markets had a softer day’s trade.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.39% higher, to see this Index registered at 404.84.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar tending softer and trading at 1.297 to Sterling and at 1.098 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is steady and is selling at $ 47.95 per barrel. 

The London and New York market started the day on Friday with early buoyancy but with both markets soon drifting back to par and taking an uncertain hesitant track into the early afternoon trade, with the London market tending to maintain a steadier stance.   As the afternoon progressed the New York came under some pressure and headed into negative territory, but to soon recover and take a modestly positive track into the late in the day trade.  

The London market ended the day on a positive note and with 66.7% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note and with 57.7% of the earlier gains of the day intact.   This close and with the markets holding steady later in the day assists to steady the technical picture of the markets and might assist to buoy sentiment within the markets for early trade today and to set the markets for a steady start, against the prices set on Friday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

MAY     1977 + 10                                              MAY   133.10 + 0.40

JUL      2002 + 10                                              JUL    135.70 + 0.75

SEP      2019 + 10                                             SEP    138.00 + 0.70

NOV     2027 + 10                                              DEC   141.50 + 0.70

JAN      2030 + 8                                               MAR   145.00 + 0.75

MAR     2030 + 8                                               MAY   147.20 + 0.75

MAY     2030 + 8                                                JUL    149.20 + 0.65

JUL      2040 + 8                                                SEP    151.10 + 0.60

SEP      2048 + 8                                                DEC   153.55 + 0.70

NOV     2055 + 8                                                MAR   155.80 + 0.65


Coffee Market Report May 05 2017

Reports from Brazil with the new crop conilon robusta coffee harvest progressing well are that both the quality and yields are proving to be better than expectations, which is good news for the countries domestic roasters and value add soluble coffee industries.  Thus, for the present and with the countries arabica coffee farmers mostly a few weeks ahead of starting their new crop harvest, it is a settled situation within Brazil and no scare stories expected to come to the fore and to excite the market. 

Weather wise there is a cold front moving into southern Brazil at present and bringing with it some late in the season rains for the main arabica coffee districts within the country, which shall assist to build up the ground water retention levels, ahead of the cold and dry winter harvest season.  Noting that good ground water retention levels assist to keep the trees moist and thus, less vulnerable to damage from any light frosts. 

With the new summer rain season now in play over Vietnam, there would appear to be fair rains to support the development of the new crop and so far, no fears of any problems for this forthcoming year end crop.   A crop that most forecast to be likely to be a larger new crop, which shall support good volumes of global robusta coffee for the coming year.   

Thus, for the present and with no significant weather concerns being voiced from Central America, Colombia, Peru, Africa, Indonesia and India, the coffee markets are not a field for the bulls to graze within.   However, while there are presently no fundamental factors to excite and support the markets there is no question that this year is a year of global deficit coffee supply and while only a modest deficit and countered by high levels of consumer market coffee stocks, is a factor that is likely to be supportive for the markets to retain some degree of buoyancy. 

But while it is of no influence on the direction that funds might wish to take in terms of commodity market prices, one has to be concerned over the influence of the relatively soft prices of the New York market upon longer term production levels.   Taking note that thirty-six years ago and the introduction of the producer price supportive quotas that were accepted by all the consumer and producer members of the International Coffee Organisation, that a price range of 120 usc/Lb. to 140 usc/Lb., was considered to be a fair price for the producers. 

Inspiring one to comment that with the steady inflation in terms of costs of capital equipment, farm inputs, labour etc. over the past three and half decades and with coffee still mostly labour intensive, value offered by the dictates of the prevailing New York price range at present, does not assist arabica coffee farmers to continue to afford the investment required to maintain high yielding crops.  Thus, threatening unless there is soon to be some degree of positive price correction, a longer-term stalling and perhaps even a tail off in global arabica coffee production.  But the resulting price recovery might perhaps come too late, to inspire a return to the coffee industry on the part of such farmers who had since turned to alternative crops.    

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 44.59 usc/Lb., while this equates to 32.04% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.  This still relatively low arbitrage, remains not such an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 557 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,411,381 bags.    There was meanwhile a larger in number 7,060 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 21,245 bags. 

The commodity markets and with a robusta dollar in plan and the influential Oil markets falling out of bed yesterday, had a generally weak day and with the overall macro commodity index taking a downside track for the day.   The Cocoa market nevertheless had a positive day’s trade and the Cotton and Orange Juice markets some degree of buoyancy, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, Coffee, Copper, Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets traded on a softer note for the day.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 1.27% lower, to see this Index registered at 403.29.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar showing some degree of buoyancy and trading at 1.292 to Sterling and at 1.098 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is tending softer and is selling at $ 45.55 per barrel. 

The London and New York market started the day yesterday on a modestly softer note and with both markets losing a little weight into the early afternoon trade, when with the negative influences of the overall macro commodity index perhaps playing a part additional selling pressure started to come into play for both markets and to influence further losses.    The New York market and with sell stops being triggered took something of a severe dip and to pip 5.1 usc/Lb. losses for the day, but with the market soon attracting some support on the lows and taking an upside track to set the market for more modest losses for the day, while the London market had taken more of a sideways track at close to its more modest losses for the day. 

The London market ended the day on a negative note and with 75% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise soft note, but having recovered 51% of the earlier losses of the day by the close.   This close is not really supportive for confidence but might be viewed more as matching the overall soft nature of commodities at present rather than reason to believe in coffee being specifically due for bearish trade and thus, one might expect to see some caution coming to the fore for early trade today.  To possibly see the markets, start the day taking a near to steady stance against the prices set yesterday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

MAY     1967 – 42                                              MAY   132.70 – 2.30

JUL      1992 – 42                                              JUL    134.95 – 2.50

SEP      2009 – 40                                             SEP    137.30 – 2.40

NOV     2017 – 41                                              DEC   140.80 – 2.40

JAN      2022 – 41                                             MAR   144.25 – 2.40

MAR     2022 – 39                                             MAY   146.45 – 2.45

MAY     2022 – 39                                              JUL    148.55 – 2.45

JUL      2032 – 39                                              SEP    150.50 – 2.40

SEP      2040 – 39                                              DEC   152.85 – 2.45

NOV     2047 – 39                                              MAR   155.15 – 2.45


Coffee Market Report May 04 2017

With the month of April past, the Indonesia government trade data from Sumatra which is the leading coffee producing island within Indonesia, has reported that the islands robusta coffee exports for the month were 111,827 bags or 140.19% higher than the same month in the previous year, at a total of 191,597 bags.   This contributes to the cumulative Sumatran robusta coffee exports for the first seven months of the present October 2016 to September 2017 coffee year to being 202,109 bags or 11.04% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 2,032,593 bags. 

It has to be noted though that while robusta coffee exports for the present 2016/ 2017 coffee year from Sumatra are so far only modestly increasing over the volumes exported during the previous 2015/2016 coffee year, that this latter 2015 to 2016 coffee year registered 50.49% lower exports than the previous 2014/ 2015 coffee year and that the 2015/2016 coffee year was in reality a dismal coffee year for the island.  However, with the new crop now starting and forecasted to be a larger new crop, one can expect that the islands monthly export volumes shall continue to improve and that by October, one shall see a much-improved performance for the present 2016/2017 coffee year.   But unlikely to match the 5.3 million bags exported during the 2015/2015 coffee year.   

It is perhaps worth a comment that with the Brazil conilon crop already being actively harvested and with the new Brazil arabica coffee crop cherries maturing and soon to start being harvested, that there has been little in the way of market supportive noise coming to the fore on the prospects for this new crop.   The perspective from many of the earlier reports would indicate that the new conilon robusta crop shall be better than the previous year’s dismal crop but unlikely to exceed domestic market demand and to limit any potential for conilon robusta exports until next year, while the new arabica coffee crop while smaller than last year’s bumper crop, is likely to be not quite as modest as some have predicted and shall be sufficient to fuel domestic and consumer market demand through to next year. 

The question is now what shall be the prospects for the follow on 2018 Brazil crop and while many forecast that presuming that weather conditions for the next twelve months in Brazil are normal, that this shall be a large new crop and with good prospects for both the conilon robusta and arabica coffee farmers.    However, Brazil has to still transit the frost threat winter season an albeit with the prevailing global weather conditions frost over the main coffee districts is an unlikely scenario, it is nevertheless a threat, while there are presently no longer term threatening indications for problems for the follow-on summer rain season.   Making one think that if frost does not become an issue and the summer rains come on time by October this year, that large new 2018 Brazil crop forecasts might have a longer term negative impact upon the market for the coming year.   

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 45.19 usc/Lb., while this equates to 32.88% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.  This still relatively low arbitrage, remains not such an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 960 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,411,938 bags.  There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 14,185 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, but with many markets tending softer and influencing a softer track for the overall macro commodity index for the day.   The Oil, Natural Gas, Coffee, Corn and Soybean markets had a day of buoyancy, while the Sugar, Cocoa, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice, Wheat, Gold and Silver markets had a softer day’s trade.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.40% lower, to see this Index registered at 408.49.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar showing some degree of buoyancy and trading at 1.288 to Sterling and at 1.089 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is steady and is selling at $ 49.20 per barrel. 

The London and New York market started the day yesterday on a positive note, but while the London market held on to its gains the New York market soon slipped back to trade around par and with the markets entering the afternoon trade on a positive note and the New York market only hesitantly steady.   As the afternoon progressed and with little in the way of producer selling activity the London market continued to take a positive track, while the New York market slipped back into negative territory.   The London market maintained its positive stance through to the close, with the New York market attracted support at the lows and bounced back into positive territory for late in the day trade.   

The London market ended the day on a very positive note and with 88.6% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a positive note and with 80% of the gains of the day intact.   This close and with the ability of the New York market to shrug off the earlier in the day negative pressures is perhaps somewhat constructive for confidence and one might expect to see a steady start due for early trade today against the prices set yesterday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

MAY     2009 + 47                                             MAY   135.00 + 1.00

JUL      2034 + 39                                              JUL    137.45 + 1.20

SEP      2049 + 40                                             SEP    139.70 + 1.15

NOV     2058 + 41                                              DEC   143.20 + 1.15

JAN      2063 + 44                                             MAR   146.65 + 1.15

MAR     2061 + 44                                             MAY   148.90 + 1.20

MAY     2061 + 41                                              JUL    151.00 + 1.25

JUL      2071 + 41                                              SEP    152.90 + 1.20

SEP      2079 + 41                                              DEC   155.30 + 1.25

NOV     2086 + 41                                              MAR   157.60 + 1.25


Coffee Market Report May 03 2017

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market decrease and liquidate their previous net long position within the market by 272.69% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 25th. April; to register a new net short-sold position of 8,769 Lots.   Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market decreased their net long position within the market by 2.23%, to register a net long position of 31,460 Lots on the day. 

Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market decreased and liquidated their net long position within the market by 182.94%, to register a new net short-sold position of 8,745 Lots.   This net short sold position which is the equivalent of 2,479,169 bags and following the period of mixed but overall more positive trade over the recent days, has most likely been marginally reduced and likewise, that of the Managed Money fund sector of the market. 

The National Coffee Institute in Honduras have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of April were 108,196 bags or 15.17% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 821,318 bags.   This improved performance they report, has contributed to the countries cumulative exports for the first seven months of the present October 2016 to September 2017 coffee year to be 32.5% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 4.04 million bags. 

There might however be some question over the seven-month export figure from Honduras of 4.04 million bags, as if one is to add the month by month coffee export reports from Honduras for the past seven months, the total adds up to a higher number of 4,417,597 bags.   In the meantime, the National Coffee Institute in Honduras say that they are targeting coffee exports for the present coffee year of well in excess of 6 million bags, which would indicate that one can expect good volumes of Honduras coffees still to come to the consumer markets in the coming months.   

The National Coffee Institute in Costa Rica have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of April were 22,307 bags or 13.11% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 147,862 bags.   This has contributed to the countries cumulative coffee exports for the first seven months of the present October 2016 to September 2017 coffee year to be 62,224 bags or 9.44% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 596,710 bags.   

The Trade Ministry in Brazil have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of April were 303,354 bags or 13.59% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 1,928,889 bags.  This lower number does however not really cause any short-term concerns ahead of what is foreseen to be a larger new arabica coffee crop that is due to start in the coming weeks, as with the mainstream consumer market coffee stocks significantly high, there are no short to medium term concerns over global arabica coffee supply.  

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 45.76 usc/Lb., while this equates to 33.59% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.  This still relatively low arbitrage, remains not such an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 845 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,410,978 bags.  There was meanwhile a larger in number 1,990 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 14,185 bags. 

The commodity markets were somewhat on a back track yesterday, with most markets tending softer and the overall macro commodity index coming under pressure for the day.  The Coffee, Cotton and Gold markets nevertheless had a day of buoyancy, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, Cocoa, Copper, Orange Juice, Wheat, Corn, Soybean and Silver markets had a softer day’s trade.   The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.48% lower, to see this Index registered at 410.12.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.289 to Sterling and at 1.092 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is steady and is selling at $ 49.05 per barrel. 

The London market predictably post the long weekend and the firmer stance taken within the New York market started the day with immediate buoyancy, while the New York market started the day trading close to par and with the markets maintaining this stance into the early afternoon trade.    As the afternoon progressed and with the Americans entering the field of play the New York market started to come under pressure and to head south into negative territory, but with the London market managing to maintain its buoyancy.   The London market continued on a positive track for the rest of the day and with the New York market having bounced off its lows and losses of 2.6 usc/Lb., crawled its way back in late trade and into modest positive territory. 

The London market ended the day on a very positive note and with 86% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a positive note and with 50% of the gains of the day intact.   This close and with the ability of the New York market to shrug off the earlier in the day negative pressures is perhaps somewhat constructive for confidence and one might expect to see a steady start due for early trade today against the prices set yesterday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

MAY     1962 + 45                                             MAY   134.00 + 0.40

JUL      1995 + 49                                              JUL    136.25 + 0.40

SEP      2009 + 49                                             SEP    138.55 + 0.40

NOV     2017 + 50                                              DEC   142.05 + 0.35

JAN      2019 + 50                                             MAR   145.50 + 0.35

MAR     2017 + 46                                             MAY   147.70 + 0.35

MAY     2020 + 44                                              JUL    149.75 + 0.35

JUL      2030 + 47                                              SEP    151.70 + 0.35

SEP      2038 + 47                                              DEC   154.05 + 0.35

NOV     2045 + 47                                              MAR   156.35 + 0.35


Coffee Market Report May 02 2017

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Non-Commercial sector of this market decrease their net long position within this market by 39.47% during the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 25th. April; to register a net long position of 28,311 Lots.  This net long position which is the equivalent of 4,718,500 bags has most likely been little changed to perhaps marginally increased, following the period of mixed but overall more buoyant trade that has since followed. 

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened yesterday, to register this at 47.58 usc/Lb., while this equates to 35.02% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.  This still relatively low arbitrage which is likely to narrow today when the London market opens on most probably a firmer note, remains not such an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 1,975 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,410,133 bags.  There was meanwhile a smaller in number 1,680 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 12,195 bags. 

The commodity markets lacked the participation of the London based markets yesterday, but the overall macro U.S.A. commodity index taking a modestly negative track for the day.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar tending softer and trading at 1.290 to Sterling and at 1.092 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is tending softer and selling at $ 49.95 per barrel. 

The London market was closed yesterday for the International Labour Day Bank holiday, to leave the New York market to trade solo for a shortened day’s trade.  The New York market started trade with immediate follow through buoyancy and maintained a positive sideways track for some hours, before attracting further speculative and fund short covering support and adding some more value and with gains of 4 usc/Lb. for the day, but with selling pressure coming in to play in late trade to limit the gains of the day.  

The New York market ended the day on a positive note and with 61.2% of the gains of the day intact, which is likely to assist to inspire some degree of catch up buoyancy for the post long weekend London market for early trade today against the prices set on Friday below.   However, with a softer Brazil Real in play and trading at 3.175 to the dollar, there might be some degree of hesitancy and only a near to steady start for the New York market for early trade today against the prices set yesterday, as follows:  

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

MAY     1917 + 39                                             MAY   133.60 + 2.55

JUL      1946 + 36                                              JUL    135.85 + 2.45

SEP      1960 + 35                                             SEP    138.15 + 2.40

NOV     1967 + 35                                              DEC   141.70 + 2.35

JAN      1969 + 33                                             MAR   145.15 + 2.40

MAR     1971 + 33                                             MAY   147.35 + 2.40

MAY     1976 + 33                                              JUL    149.40 + 2.40

JUL      1983 + 33                                              SEP    151.35 + 2.40

SEP      1991 + 33                                              DEC   153.70 + 2.40

NOV     1998 + 33                                              MAR   156.00 + 2.40


Coffee Market Report May 01 2017

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market decrease their net long position within the market by 182.93% during the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 25th. April; to switch to and register a short-sold position of 8,745 Lots on the day.  This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 2,479,169 bags has most likely been little changed to perhaps marginally decreased again, following the late in the day rally within the New York market on Friday. 

The authorities in Vietnam have reported on Friday that the countries coffee exports for the month of April shall most likely prove to be 2.5 million bags, which would contribute to the countries coffee exports of mostly robusta coffees for the first four months of this year to be 8.8% lower than the same period last year, at a total of 10.07 million bags. 

This number with the countries domestic coffee demand now at close to 3 million bags per annum, would indicate the potential to still export in excess of 12 million bag of coffee over the next eight months.   This is however only an average of 1.5 million bags per month and in this respect, would indicate a slowing in Vietnams monthly exports for the third quarter of this year, with Indonesia, India and Uganda having to step in to fill some gaps for the consumer market industries robusta coffee demand. 

The International Coffee Organisation ICO have reported that global coffee exports for the month of March were 2% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 10.72 million bags.  They do however report that despite this dip, the cumulative global coffee exports for the first six months of the present October 2016 to September 2017 coffee year are 4.8% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 60.08 million bags. 

In terms of variety of global coffee exports, the ICO have reported that there was a ratio of 63.57 to 36.43 for arabica coffees to robusta coffees, for the first six months of the present October 2016 to September 2017 coffee year.  This ratio indicating that in terms of what is presumed to be higher share being held by robusta coffees within the consumer market blends, that the prevailing significant consumer market coffee stocks are heavily weighted towards the arabica coffees.  

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened on Friday, to register this at 45.13 usc/Lb., while this equates to 33.83% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.  This still relatively low arbitrage remains not such an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 68 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 1,408,158 bags.  There was meanwhile a larger in number 4,685 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 13,875 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed but overall more positive in trade on Friday and ahead of the long weekend that come with today’s International Workers day holiday for most of the world, with the overall macro commodity index taking a positive track for the day.   The Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice, Wheat and Gold markets had a day of buoyancy, while the Cocoa, Corn, Soybean and Silver markets had a softer day’s trade.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.98% higher, to see this Index registered at 411.90.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.293 to Sterling and at 1.089 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil closed on Friday on a steady note and selling at $ 50.60 per barrel. 

The London and New York markets started the day on Friday with early buoyancy, but while the London market maintained its buoyancy into the early afternoon trade, the New York market slipped back to trade around par.  As the afternoon progressed the New York market remained close to par, but with the London market started to add some more value and to take a steady upside track, which was joined late in the day by a rally for the New York market that with the assistance of buy stops being triggered and little in the way of producer selling over the market, became a sharp positive correction for the market.  

The London market ended the on a positive note and with 65.5% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a very positive note and with 97.5% of the gains of the day intact.   The London market is close today for the International Workers Day Bank Holiday as are most of the world markets, wot leave the New York market to trade solo for a shortened day’s trade.   However, with the evidence of the speculative sector of the New York market having switched into a net short sold structure and with the market having closed on a high on Friday while producers are mostly on holiday for the day and not available to sell into the market, it is likely that the New York market is due for a cautious steady start for trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

MAY     1917 + 39                                             MAY   131.05 + 3.95

JUL      1946 + 36                                              JUL    133.40 + 3.90

SEP      1960 + 35                                             SEP    135.75 + 3.85

NOV     1967 + 35                                              DEC   139.35 + 3.90

JAN      1969 + 33                                             MAR   142.75 + 3.85

MAR     1971 + 33                                             MAY   144.95 + 3.85

MAY     1976 + 33                                              JUL    147.00 + 3.80

JUL      1983 + 33                                              SEP    148.95 + 3.80

SEP      1991 + 33                                              DEC   151.30 + 3.85

NOV     1998 + 33                                              MAR   153.60 + 3.90


Coffee Market Report April 28 2017

Contrary to the forecasts at the beginning of the month on the part of the private trade within Vietnam that April coffee exports would be between 1.7 million and 2.2 million bags, the Agricultural Ministry in Vietnam and with the month almost over, have estimated that coffee exports for the month shall prove to be closer to 2.8 million bags.   However, with the dip in the reference prices of the London robusta coffee market over the past week, there is evidence of internal market farm and internal trade price resistance and with this influencing a firming of the asking export differentials, on the part of the Vietnam exporters. 

West Africa’s leading robusta coffee producer the Ivory Coast has reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of March were 76,000 bags or 69.86% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 32,783 bags.    This has contributed to the countries cumulative coffee exports for the first three months of this year to be 131,100 bags or 48.17% lower than the same period last year, at a total of 141,083 bags. 

The Coffee Board of India have reported that the countries coffee exports for the first sixteen and half weeks of this year up to the 25th. April, were 2% lower than the same period last year, at a total of 2,084,550 bags.  While with the dip in value of the reference prices of the international terminal markets and the prevailing lacklustre consumer market demand, the trade in India expect that coffee exports shall remain relatively modest for the coming weeks. 

Most of the major consumer market players with the exception of the U.S.A. and likewise all the major producers and including Brazil, Vietnam, the Central Americans, Colombia, Indonesia and India are now looking towards the May Day long weekend, with Monday a holiday and one would think that physical coffee trade shall be slow for today.  While in terms of this holiday and with the London market closed on Monday, the New York arabica coffee market shall trade for a shortened day on Monday.  

Meanwhile and aside from export data from individual producers from time to time, the coffee markets are presently devoid of any striking fundamental news reports.   This in terms of the lack of threatening to longer term coffee supply and the adage of no news is good news, is tending to underpin the prevailing lack of speculative confidence and support within the coffee terminal markets.   But it shall be interesting to see in the coming days, how far short the Managed Money Funds and the Speculative sector of the New York markets have gone within this market.   While might be a factor that could come to the fore, to somewhat stabilise the market for trade next week.   

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 42.86 usc/Lb., while this equates to 33.10% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.  This still relatively low arbitrage remains not such an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 241 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,408,090 bags.  There was meanwhile a larger in number 4,462 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 18,560 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed but overall softer in trade yesterday and with the U.S. dollar relatively steady for the day, to see the overall macro commodity index taking a softer track for the day.   The Wheat, Corn, Soybean and Gold markets had a day of buoyancy, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice and Silver markets had a softer day’s trade. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.13% lower, to see this Index registered at 407.92.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.290 to Sterling and at 1.086 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is steady and is showing a degree of buoyancy and is selling at $ 50.90 per barrel. 

The London market started the day yesterday on a marginally softer note, while the New York market started the day with modest buoyancy and with the London market soon recovering back to par.   The buoyancy for the New York market was however short lived and both markets soon slipped back into negative territory for the early afternoon trade, to see the London market move into modest negative territory, while the New York market suffered from more substantial losses.  Both markets then proceeded to take something of a sideways track for the rest of the day, albeit that there was some degree of buoyancy seen at the lows of the day.  

The London market ended the on a negative note but with 79.2% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note and with 58.5% of the earlier losses of the day intact.   This close and with the technical picture for the markets looking negative does little to inspire confidence, but one might think that there might be some degree of speculative exhaustion coming into play and another steady start due for early trade today against the prices set yesterday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

MAY     1878 – 20                                             MAY   127.10 – 1.05

JUL      1910 – 19                                              JUL    129.50 – 1.20

SEP      1925 – 19                                             SEP    131.90 – 1.20

NOV     1932 – 19                                              DEC   135.45 – 1.25

JAN      1936 – 18                                             MAR   138.90 – 1.20

MAR     1938 – 17                                             MAY   141.10 – 1.15

MAY     1943 – 15                                              JUL    143.20 – 1.10

JUL      1950 – 15                                              SEP    145.15 – 1.10

SEP      1958 – 15                                              DEC   147.45 – 1.25

NOV     1965 – 15                                              MAR   149.70 – 1.30


Coffee Market Report April 27 2017

The Australian weather service have reported that conditions within the Pacific Ocean are presently neutral, but they do foresee a 50% chance for an El Niño phenomenon to develop in the coming months, which would threaten partial drought conditions for the Pacific rim coffee countries such as Colombia and Indonesia.   It would however bring with it further afield, the potential for increased rainfall for the coffee districts in South East Brazil.  

Therefore, mixed signals for the coffee markets, in terms of its potential to damage coffee production for some countries, but to assist to support the forecasts for a large new Brazil coffee crop for the coming year.   While if the El Niño should it occur only proves to be modest in nature, it is unlikely that it would have a marked affect upon global coffee supply for the coming year, which is so far looking to increase.  

Thus, for the present and with the prevailing generally normal weather conditions being experienced over most of the major coffee producer blocs and with forecasts for an improved year end crop from Vietnam and a larger new 2018 crops for Brazil and Indonesia, while Colombia and Central America are potentially due for follow on good coffee crop levels, the fundamental of the prevailing modest deficit coffee supply is seemingly not sufficient to counter the technical chart directed bearish sentiment that has come to the coffee markets.    

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 43.20 usc/Lb., while this equates to 33.05% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.  This still relatively low arbitrage remains not such an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 2,357 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,408,331 bags.  There was meanwhile a larger in number 5,805 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 23,022 bags. 

The producer bloc of Mexico and Central America continue to dominate these stocks, with a 39.66% share of the stocks and followed by Colombia with a 21.68% share of the stocks and Peru, with a 16.85% share of the stocks.  The East African producer bloc of Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda have contributed to 14.58% of the stocks and with Brazil contributing 4.54%, India 2.15% and Papua New Guinea 0.54% of the stocks.   While the European warehouses of the exchange are presently holding 100% of the coffee pending grading for the exchange.   

The commodity markets while mixed in trade yesterday and with the U.S. dollar relatively steady for the day, but with the overall macro commodity index taking a softer track for the day.   The Natural Gas, Cocoa, London robusta Coffee, Copper and Orange Juice markets had a day of buoyancy and the Oil markets were steady for the day, while the Sugar, New York arabica Coffee, Cotton, Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets had a softer day’s trade.   The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.23% lower, to see this Index registered at 408.45.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar near to steady and trading at 1.289 to Sterling and at 1.091 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is steady and is selling at $ 49.30 per barrel. 

The London market started the day yesterday on a very positive note and with the New York market starting the day with modest buoyancy and with the markets maintaining this stance, into the early afternoon trade.  However, as the afternoon progressed both markets started to come under pressure and to drift back to par, but while he London market managed to retain its buoyancy and to bounce back to take a sideways and modestly positive track for the day the New York market faltered and moved back south into negative territory. 

The London market ended the day on a positive note but with only 26% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a negative note and with 75.6% of the earlier losses of the day intact.   These closes assist to paint something of a negative picture for the charts and does little to inspire confidence and one might think that the markets are due only for a near to steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

MAY     1898 + 14                                              MAY   128.15 – 1.75

JUL      1929 + 13                                              JUL    130.70 – 1.70

SEP      1944 + 13                                             SEP    133.10 – 1.70

NOV     1951 + 13                                              DEC   136.70 – 1.65

JAN      1954 + 14                                             MAR   140.10 – 1.65

MAR     1955 + 15                                             MAY   142.25 – 1.70

MAY     1958 + 15                                              JUL    144.30 – 1.70

JUL      1965 + 15                                              SEP    146.25 – 1.75

SEP      1973 + 15                                              DEC   148.70 – 1.65

NOV     1980 + 15                                              MAR   151.00 – 1.65


Coffee Market Report April 26 2017

The coffee terminal market remained under pressure yesterday, with the London market in particular and coming off many months of speculative and fund net long holdings, suffering from steady position liquidation.  But with some thoughts that the London robusta coffee market and against still relatively tight global robusta coffee supply, might soon be seen to be somewhat oversold and due for some degree of stability and perhaps even, a modest positive correction.  

Reports from Vietnam estimate that the domestic coffee consumption is close to 2.9 million bags of coffee per annum and steadily increasing, while the exports of value added roast and ground and soluble coffee from the country are seen to be close to 2.5 million bags per annum.   With Vietnam coffee industries actively targeting the regional consumer markets and with and including one of Vietnams leading coffee roasting companies now targeting both on line and retail outlet sales of roast and ground and soluble coffee sales, within the Chinese market.  

Meanwhile the General Administration of Customs in China have reported that the countries import of coffee for the first three months of this year totalled a relatively modest 6,682 metric tons, while the country’s exports of coffee for the same period was a more substantial 9,968 metric tons.   These are relatively modest numbers, in terms of the global industry perspective that the growing coffee shop culture within the country and the growth of soluble coffee consumption, is due to fuel an active coffee market within this high population country. 

Nevertheless, and despite some question over the official coffee trade figures from China, there is no doubt that the regional Asian coffee market remains on a strong upside track and with this growing interest in coffee from the consumers in general, shall encourage increased regional production.  Suggesting that in time that the growing interest in coffee consumption within Asia shall assist to encourage the Asian coffee producers and with presently an approximate 32% share of global coffee production, shall steadily increase this share in the coming years.  

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened yesterday, to register this at 45.49 usc/Lb., while this equates to 34.36% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.  This still relatively low arbitrage remains not such an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 995 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,410,688 bags.  There was meanwhile a larger in number 4,860 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 17,217 bags. 

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange were seen to increase by 7,000 bags or 0.25% in the week of trade leading up to Monday 24th. April, to see these stock registered at 2,815,833 bags, on the day. 

The commodity markets while mixed in trade yesterday but with the U.S. dollar losing some muscle through the day, there was buoyancy within many markets and the macro overall commodity index had a modestly positive day.  The Oil, Cocoa, New York arabica Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice, Wheat and Corn markets had a day of buoyancy, while the Natural Gas, Sugar, London robusta Coffee, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets had a softer day’s trade.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.54% higher, to see this Index registered at 409.38.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar near to steady and trading at 1.284 to Sterling and at 1.094 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is steady and is selling at $ 49.70 per barrel. 

The London market started the day yesterday on a steady note but soon dropping off to take a softer track south, while the New York market opened the day with modest buoyancy and with both markets retaining this stance through to the early afternoon trade.   As the afternoon progressed the London market lost some more weight before bouncing back to limit its losses, while the New York market trading erratically either side of par and perhaps assisted by the positive nature of the macro commodity index, took on a modestly positive stance for late in the day trade.   

The London market ended the day on a soft note but having recovered 69.2% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a positive note and with 50% of the earlier gains of the day intact.   This close and with the New York market having somewhat stabilised and with the London market having come back off seven and half month lows might well assist to contribute to some degree of confidence, to set the markets for a steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

MAY     1884 – 22                                              MAY   129.90 + 0.40

JUL      1916 – 20                                              JUL    132.40 + 0.50

SEP      1931 – 22                                             SEP    134.80 + 0.55

NOV     1938 – 22                                              DEC   138.35 + 0.50

JAN      1940 – 22                                             MAR   141.75 + 0.45

MAR     1940 – 23                                             MAY   143.95 + 0.45

MAY     1943 – 21                                              JUL    146.00 + 0.45

JUL      1950 – 21                                              SEP    148.00 + 0.45

SEP      1958 – 21                                              DEC   150.35 + 0.45

NOV     1965 – 21                                              MAR   152.65 + 0.50