Coffee Market Report June 02 2017

The National Coffee Institute in Honduras have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of May were 369,670 bags or 51.2% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 1,091,681 bags.   This improved performance they report, has contributed to the countries cumulative exports for the first eight months of the present October 2016 to September 2017 coffee year to be 34% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 5.02 million bags. 

The National Coffee Institute in Costa Rica have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of May were 9,720 bags or 5.64% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 182,180 bags.   The report notes that this has contributed to the countries cumulative coffee exports for the first eight months of the present October 2016 to September 2017 coffee year to be 15% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 707,556 bags.   Albeit that when calculating the month by month reports since October last year, the cumulative exports are a higher 778,890 bags. 

The Trade Ministry in Brazil have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of May were 128,180 bags or 5.91 higher than the same month last year, at a total of 2,296,023 bags.  This relatively good number is registered ahead of what is foreseen to be a more modest new arabica coffee crop that is due to start in the coming weeks, but the seemingly free flow of exports ahead of this smaller arabica crop, might suggest that the dip in production will after all, not be a significant as some had earlier suggested. 

The respected Brazilian analyst Safras & Mercado have reported that so far approximately 35% of the new conilon robusta coffee crop has already been harvested and along with 14% of the new arabica coffee crop having been harvested.   While reports indicate that at the start of the dry winter harvest season in Brazil, most of the main coffee districts in the country and with the exception of the south of Espirito Santo and Zona da Mata districts, have reported above average rains for the month of May.  These rains assisting to maintain fair ground water retention levels and to assist, to counter some of the stress upon the trees that comes with coffee harvest. 

The Indonesia government trade data from Sumatra which is the leading coffee producing island within Indonesia, has reported that the islands robusta coffee exports for the month of May were 202,686 bags or 262,251% higher than the same month in the previous year, at a total of 279,973 bags.   This contributes to the cumulative Sumatran robusta coffee exports for the first eight months of the present October 2016 to September 2017 coffee year to being 404,795 bags or 21.22% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 2,312,566 bags. 

It has to be noted though that while robusta coffee exports for the present 2016/ 2017 coffee year from Sumatra are so far only modestly increasing over the volumes exported during the previous 2015/2016 coffee year, that this latter 2015 to 2016 coffee year registered 50.49% lower exports than the previous 2014/ 2015 coffee year and that the 2015/2016 coffee year was in reality a dismal coffee year for the island.  However, with the new crop now coming in and forecasted to be a larger new crop, one can expect that the islands monthly export volumes shall continue to improve and that by October, one shall see a much-improved performance for the present 2016/2017 coffee year.   But unlikely to match the 5.3 million bags exported during the 2014/2015 coffee year.   

With robusta coffee stocks from the last Vietnam crop declining post the smaller new crop that came in over October 2016 to January 2017, reports from the traders in the country are estimating that exports for the month of June shall be between 1.5 million and 2 million bags.  Meanwhile with the reference prices of the London market haven softened in recent weeks, there is evidence of rising internal market price resistance on the part of the farmers and internal traders, for the modest quantities of unsold stocks at hand.  

The September to September contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 39.29 usc/Lb., while this equates to 30.21% price discount for the London robusta coffee market.   

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 1,939 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,476,717 bags.  There was meanwhile a larger in number 3,568 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 54,524 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday but mostly on the back foot, with the overall macro commodity index taking a softer track for the day.  The Oil, Cotton and Copper markets had a day of buoyancy, while the Natural Gas, Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, Orange Juice, Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets had a softer day’s trade.   The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.58% lower, to see this Index registered at 404.20.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.287 to Sterling and at 1.122 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is near to steady and is selling at $ 49.25 per barrel. 

The London market started the day yesterday on a softer note, while the New York market had a steady start for the day’s trade and with value to the positive side of par.   The London market soon recovered and with both markets holding close to par, into the early afternoon trade.  However, as the afternoon progressed and following a brief step up into positive territory for both markets, they came under pressure and to take an erratic sideways track close to par, before coming under further pressure and retreating into negative territory for late in the day trade. 

The London market ended the day on a negative note and with 84.6% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note and with 86.8% of the earlier losses of the day intact.   This close does not inspire confidence but one might think that being at the low end of the recent trading range, that there might be some inspiration for caution and that the markets might be due for a steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                      NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

JUL     1981 – 14                                          JUL     127.70 – 1.65

SEP     2001 – 11                                          SEP    130.05 – 1.65

NOV    2001 – 6                                            DEC    133.55 – 1.70

JAN     1989 – 7                                            MAR   137.00 – 1.65

MAR    1975 – 8                                            MAY   139.20 – 1.65

MAY    1972 – 8                                            JUL    141.35 – 1.70

JUL     1985 – 8                                            SEP    143.40 – 1.65

SEP     2000 – 7                                            DEC   145.85 – 1.60

NOV    2007 – 7                                            MAR   148.25 – 1.60

JAN     2014 unch                                        MAY   149.30 – 1.60