Coffee Market Report July 26 2017

The Uganda Coffee Development Authority UCDA has reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of June were 164,228 bags or 61.66% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 430,565 bags.  This improved performance and following a much-improved performance in many of the previous months, has contributed to the countries cumulative coffee exports for the first nine months of the present October 2016 to September 2017 coffee year to being 870,352 bags or 34.16% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 3,418,441 bags.  

The surge in coffee exports from Uganda during this present coffee year so far and with still three more months of exports to come, would seemingly indicate that Uganda with an approximate 74 to 26 ratio of robusta to arabica coffees, is on track to see coffee exports top 4 million bags during this coffee year.   While with a host of very active state and private industry farm extension service programs in play within the country, one might expect to see further growth in Ugandan coffee production in the coming years.  

Uganda now truly the leading robusta coffee producer within the African continent and accounting for close to 50% of the continents production and exports, while the countries is now the second largest arabica coffee producer and accounting for approximately 13% of the continents production and approximately 16% of the continents arabica coffee exports.  

Meanwhile the African continents largest coffee producer Ethiopia with its well respected arabica coffees, has seemingly had a good year.      In this respect, the Ethiopian Coffee Development Authority and in terms of the counties 8th. July to 7th. July financial year, has reported that the countries coffee exports of for the just completed financial year 11.5% higher than the previous coffee year, at a total of 3,683,333 bags.  These exports they report, were at a value of approximately 866 million U.S. dollars. 

The September to September contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 35.35 usc/Lb., while this equates to a 27.07% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.   

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 2,718 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,542,629 bags.  There were meanwhile a larger in number 3,925 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 37,654 bags. 

The commodity markets had a mixed day yesterday but with the assistance of the recovering oil markets that have reacted to news of export controls due from Saudi Arabia, the overall macro commodity index took a near to steady track for the day.   The Oil and Copper markets had a day of buoyancy and the London robusta Coffee and Silver markets were steady, while the Sugar, Cocoa, New York arabica Coffee, Wheat and Gold markets had a softer day’ trade.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.16% lower, to see this Index registered at 402.21.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.303 to Sterling and at 1.164 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is steady and is selling at $ 49.90 per barrel. 

The London and New York coffee markets experienced a hesitantly positive start to the day yesterday, but with New York market soon coming under some pressure and moving back into modest negative territory, to see the markets take a mixed track into early afternoon trade.    As the afternoon progressed the New York market experienced further pressure and with the London market which had posted gains for the day of $ 15.00 per metric ton starting to falter, to see the London market slip back into negative territory.  Both market did however recover in late trade and with the New York market recovering some of its losses, while the London market moved back up to close to par by the close. 

The London market ended the day on a near to steady note and having recovered 77% of the earlier losses of the day, while the New York market ended the day on a soft note and with 60.9% of the earlier losses of the day intact.  This overall negative nature of the day’s trade paints something of a negative picture for the charts and does little to inspire and thus, one might expect to see only a near to steady start for early trade today against the prices set yesterday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                      NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

JUL    2118 – 4 

SEP    2100 – 3                                              SEP    130.60 – 1.95

NOV   2085 – 2                                               DEC   134.20 – 1.95

JAN    2062 – 1                                              MAR   137.75 – 1.90

MAR   2050 unch                                          MAY   139.95 – 1.95

MAY   2057 unch                                           JUL    142.10 – 1.95

JUL    2072 – 2                                              SEP    144.20 – 1.95

SEP    2082 – 2                                              DEC   147.05 – 1.95

NOV   2095 – 2                                              MAR   149.85 – 1.95

JAN    2102 – 2                                              MAY   151.40 – 1.95