Coffee Market Report September 06 2017

With the new crop cherries ripening and the start of harvesting within the lower grown districts of the country now only a few weeks away, the National Coffee Institute in Cost Rica are forecasting that the new crop shall be 12.75% higher than the last crop, at approximately 1.53 million bags.   This forecast is very much in line with many other private trade and industry forecasts, which talk of a new crop from the country that might even be a higher 1.6 million bags and closer to the 2015/2016 harvest levels. 

Overall in terms of Mexico, Central American and South American washed arabica coffee production, the forecasts so far, generally point to a larger new Mexican and Central American crop soon due to start and likewise, a larger new Colombian main crop that shall start next month.   Thus, with an improved new Peru crop still coming to the market, to see washed arabica coffee production from the Americas for the forthcoming new October 2017 to September 2018 coffee year to rise by approximately 1.5 million bags to total approximately 45.5 million bags.   This number including the rising volumes of Brazil arabica coffees, which are now being processed as washed or semi-washed coffees. 

Added to the prospects of the increase in washed arabica coffee supply for the first quarter of the coming year and accompanied by an increase in robusta coffee supply that is due with the forecasted larger new Vietnam crop, is the evidence of the steadily rising certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange.   These factors for the present are presently bringing pressure upon market sentiment and with even the stable London robusta coffee market attracting speculative short selling pressure, to the both markets moving south yesterday.   With perhaps the only supportive factor that could come to the fore, would be some delay in the start of the Brazil spring and summer rain season, which would bring forth speculation over abortion of the recent flowerings towards the next and so far, forecasted significantly larger 2018 Brazil crop. 

In the meantime, it is Dia da Independência or Independence Day for Brazil tomorrow and bringing with it many public celebrations and with many extending this into Friday, to take a long weekend.   This one would think and along with the firmer Brazil Real that is presently trading at 3.117 to the U.S. dollar and along with the soft nature of the reference prices of the terminal markets, shall mute selling within the internal market in Brazil and likewise, the negative effects of exporter price fixation selling into the New York market.  A factor that could possibly assist to halt the slide, so long as the speculative and fund sectors of the market do not look to further extend their already substantial net short sold position within this market. 

The November to December contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened yesterday, to register this at 38.54 usc/Lb., while this equates to 30.14% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.  

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 9,121 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,724,203 bags.  There was meanwhile a larger in number 10,254 bags decrease in the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 68,579 bags. 

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange were seen to decrease by 24,000 bags or 0.97% over the week of trade leading up to Monday 4th. September, to see these stocks registered at 2,448,167 bags, on the day. 

The commodity markets post the long weekend in the U.S.A. were in full swing again yesterday and with most of the markets taking a positive stance, to see the overall macro commodity index taking an upside track for the day.   The Oil, Sugar, Cotton, Orange Juice, Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets had a day of buoyancy and the Cocoa market was steady, while the Natural Gas and Coffee markets bucked the trend and had a soft day’s trade.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 1.09% higher, to see this Index registered at 411.06.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar tending softer and trading at 1.304 to Sterling and at 1.192 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is steady and is selling at $ 53.35 per barrel. 

The London market started the day yesterday marginally south of par and the New York market started the day on a softer note and very quickly joined by a softening in the London market, but with the New York market recovering to par and taking a steady track into early afternoon trade.   As the afternoon progressed the London market remained mostly marginally south of par, while the New York market and possibly influenced by the positive nature of the overall macro commodity index, moved up into positive territory and with gains peaking at 2.20 usc/Lb.  However, the London market and with speculative short selling putting more pressure upon the market started to extend its losses and with the New York market coming off its peak and with sell stops coming into play, moving back to join the London market within negative territory. 

The London market ended the day on a very soft note and with 92.9% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a soft note and with 64.9% of the earlier losses of the day intact.  This soft close tends to paint something of a negative picture for the charts but with the possibility that the soft London market might start to attract some industry price fixation buying and with producer selling muted above both markets, the possibility for a corrective steady start for the markets for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                       NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

SEP    1983 – 51                                             SEP    126.50 – 1.25

NOV   1969 – 52                                              DEC   127.85 – 1.20

JAN    1952 – 48                                             MAR   131.35 – 1.30

MAR   1944 – 45                                             MAY   133.70 – 1.25

MAY   1953 – 43                                              JUL   136.00 – 1.30

JUL    1976 – 40                                             SEP    138.30 – 1.30

SEP    1983 – 41                                             DEC   141.60 – 1.30

NOV   1987 – 41                                             MAR   144.75 – 1.30

JAN    1993 – 41                                             MAY   146.75 – 1.25

MAR   1998 – 41                                             JUL    148.70 – 1.25