Coffee Market Report September 12 2017

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market increase their net short sold position within the market by 14.75% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 5th. September, to register a new net short sold position of 29,913 Lots.   Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market decreased their net long position within the market by 382 lots, to register a net long position of 33,320 Lots on the day.

Over the same week, the latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market increase their net short sold position within the market by 20.07% during the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 5th September, to register a net short sold position of 31,655 Lots on the day. This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 8,974,192 bags has most likely been marginally decreased following the period of mixed but overall steadier trade, which has since followed.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Non-Commercial sector of this market decrease their net long position within this market by 50.28% during the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 5th September; to register a net long position of 10,279 Lots.  This net long position which is the equivalent of 1,713,166 bags has most likely been little changed to perhaps marginally decreased again, following the period of mixed trade that has since followed.

The General Department of Customs in Vietnam have reported that the country’s coffee exports of mostly robusta coffees for the month of August, were near to expectations for the month at a total of 1,583,333 bags.   This volume was approximately 5.7% below that of July exports but in line with an earlier estimate made by their Customs Department, as with stocks from the last crop having sharply declined over the past few months, it was not an unexpected relatively modest number.

Cecafé the exporters association in Brazil have reported that the country’s green coffee exports for the month of August were 21.56% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 2.11 million bags.  Cumulatively Brazils’ export figures are 9.2% below that of the same eight months in the previous calender year.  This in consideration of the low carryover stocks into the new crop that is mostly harvested, although the organisation additionally notes that the export market is showing signs of recovery and that they do expect coffee exports will pick up in volume in September.

The November to December contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened yesterday, to register this at 43.15 usc/Lb., while this equates to 32.77% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 3,948 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,755,698 bags.  There was meanwhile an increase at 2,182 bags in the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 81,264 bags.

The commodity markets had a mixed day yesterday, the U.S. Dollar posted a modest recovery while the oil markets were buoyant in the wake of the latest hurricane Irma to touch upon Florida shores.  It was a positive day for Cocoa, arabica Coffee, Sugar, Corn, a steady day for Soybean, and a lower day for robusta Coffee, Cotton, Wheat,  Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.2701% lower, to see this Index registered at 410.22.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.317 to Sterling and at 1.196 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is steady and is selling at $ 54.42 per barrel.

The coffee markets started the day yesterday in positive territory in a comparatively busy volume start to the day.  The new York market choppy but in positive territory up to midsession, as was the London market a little more erratic, slipping bag to unchanged toward the middle of the day.  New York succumbed to a degree of seller pressure as the America’s opened for their business day and slip through unchanged to shed all of the gains and slip into negative territory, although buy stops assisted to boost the makret at the low and another recovery back to positive territory in New York.  The London market that had followed a similar trend by midsession, could not seemingly muster the same degree of underlying speculative support and this market slipped lower in the afternoon session, to set a new lower trading range for the day and in a negative and narrow range as the market drew to a close.  The New York market which once again fell through unchanged tread a while before regaining upward momentum, to see this market finish the day in positive territory at the highs of the day.  The less volatile London market similarly posted a recovery right at the close of the day, however note qite all the way to par, to see this market finish just below unchanged on the day.  The markets set the close yesterday, as follows:
 
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                       NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

SEP    1972 – 7                                              SEP   130.60 + 1.20
NOV   1951 – 9                                               DEC  131.85 + 1.20
JAN    1936 – 8                                              MAR  135.35 + 1.20
MAR   1932 – 8                                              MAY  137.70 + 1.25
MAY   1942 – 7                                              JUL    140.00 + 1.20
JUL    1971 – 7                                              SEP    142.25 + 1.20
SEP    1980 – 7                                              DEC   145.55 + 1.20
NOV   1991 – 7                                              MAR   148.80 + 1.25
JAN    2002 – 7                                              MAY   150.85 + 1.25
MAR   2007 – 7                                              JUL    152.85 + 1.35