Coffee Market Report November 08 2018

The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee production for the month of October was 1.2% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 1,086,000 bags.  This is the first month of exports for the present October 2018 to September 2019 coffee year, which registered total production over the past twelve months of October 2017 to September 2018 coffee year at a total 13,990,000 bags. 

The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have also reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of October were 79,000 bags or 6.8% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 1,076,000 bags.  Colombia’s cumulative coffee exports over the past twelve months October 2017 to September 2018 registered a total 12,956,000 bags.

The January 2019 to December 2018 contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 39.08 usc/Lb., while this equates to 33.81% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.  

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 1,092 bags; to register these stocks at 2,446,809 bags.  There were meanwhile 4,215 bags decrease in the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 20,200 bags.

The commodity markets encountered a steady day yesterday, the USA which is still the largest economy reported midterm election results that were seemingly anticipated by the markets with limited and consolidatory reaction.  The US Dollar was steady to turn slightly softer on the day. It was a lower day for Oil, Corn, Soybean markets and a positive day for Cocoa, Coffee, Sugar, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.42% higher; to see this index registered at 415.68.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.312 to Sterling, at 1.142 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 3.73 Brazilian Real, while North Sea Oil is steady and selling at US$ 70.60 per barrel. 

The coffee markets opened the day on a positive note, London tracking upward in incrementally positive territory and in New York a positive start that turned into choppy morning in a narrow trading range.   London continued on a relatively low volume, positive but limited range to midsession while New York met with additional buying support as the business day opened in the Americas. The day progressed to the finish line in a quiet session in London and a hefty volume of trade registered in New York, to set the close in the upper range of trade for London and just under the day’s highs in New York, in positive territory for both markets, as follows: 

London Robusta US$ / Mt.       New York Arabica Usc / Lb.                            

 NOV     1,667    +  16                DEC     115.60  +  2.35
 JAN      1,687    +  18                MAR     119.45  +  1.80
 MAR     1,698    +  15                MAY     122.30  +  1.85
 MAY     1,711    +  13                JULY    124.95  +  1.90
 JULY    1,723    +  11                SEPT   127.45  +  1.90
 SEPT    1,735    +  9                  DEC     130.85  +  1.90
 NOV     1,749    +  9                  MAR     134.15  +  1.85
 JAN      1,762    +  9                  MAY     136.25  +  1.85
 MAR     1,774    +  9                  JULY    138.15  +  1.90
 MAY     1,794    +  9                  SEPT   139.90  +  1.90