Coffee Market Report December 26 2018

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market increase their net short sold position within the market by 16.31% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 18th. December; to register a new net short sold position of 53,0466 Lots.  Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market decreased their net long position within the market by 4.67%, to register a net long position of 39,091 Lots on the day. 

Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market increased their net short sold position within this market by 10.52%; to register a new net short sold position of 60,900 Lots. This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 17,264,880 bags has most likely been marginally reduced, following the mixed but overall more positive trade which has since followed and likewise, that of the Managed Money Fund sector of the market. 

The March 2019 to March 2019 contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened on Monday, to register this at 33.48 usc/Lb., while this equates to 32.76% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.   

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 1,140 bags on Monday; to register these stocks at 2,461,219 bags.  There was meanwhile a larger in number 3,701 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 18,341 bags. 

The commodity markets encountered mostly thin pre-holiday season trade on Friday, with the overall macro commodity index tending softer for the day.   The Sugar, Cocoa and Coffee markets nevertheless, ended the day on a positive note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.86% lower; to see this index registered at 391.09.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.269 to Sterling, at 1.139 to the Euro and with the dollar buying 3.903 Brazilian Real. 

The London market started the day on Monday on a positive note and with the New York market trading around par, to see the markets taking this mixed stance into the early afternoon trade.  As the afternoon progressed the New York market started to attract support and to join the London market in positive territory and to see the markets on track for a positive end to the day’s trade. 

The London market ended the day on a very positive note and with 88.9% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market likewise ended the day on a very positive note and with 99.8% of the earlier gains of the day intact.   This recovery of much of Friday’s losses might assist to inspire some degree of confidence, to set the New York market for a follow through steady to perhaps even buoyant start for early trade, against the prices set on Monday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                       NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

JAN    1485 + 24                                             MAR   102.20 + 2.50

MAR   1515 + 24                                             MAY   105.30 + 2.40

MAY   1534 + 24                                              JUL    108.15 + 2.45

JUL    1551 + 24                                              SEP    110.95 + 2.45

SEP    1570 + 24                                              DEC   114.75 + 2.40

NOV   1590 + 24                                              MAR   118.55 + 2.45

JAN    1608 + 24                                              MAY   121.00 + 2.40

MAR   1630 + 24                                              JUL    123.40 + 2.40

MAY   1653 + 24                                              SEP    125.65 + 2.40

JUL    1670 + 24                                              DEC    128.75 + 2.45