Coffee Market Report March 04 2019

As the end of month coffee production and export statistics come to the fore, a preliminary report from the Brazil Trade Ministry has indicated coffee exports to have reached 3.11 million bags during the month of February, an increase of 2.64% on that of January export performance and an increase year on year of 37% on that of the same month in the previous year. The statistical data released does not explore the comparative year on year value attained, ordinarily reported by the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association, soon to follow.

The National Coffee Institute in Honduras has reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of February fell by 14.4% against the same month last year, to register the equivalent of 824,901 60 Kg., bags. This decline in the preliminary figures reported by IHCAFE have been cited as a result of the prevailing low international coffee prices as well as the porous border trade between their and neighbouring countries.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange rose by 1,769 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 2,478,770 bags. The number of bags pending grading to the exchange registered an increase by 566 bags, to see these pending grading stocks at 33,226bags.

Brazil Carnival …

It was a mixed day for the commodity markets, as technically positive sentiment surrounded the continuation of tariff talks between China and USA provided a boost to US Dollar strength, the Euro slipping back on the day. It was a softer day for the Oil markets and so too, for Sugar, Cocoa, Copper, Orange Juice, Wheat, Gold, Platinum and Silver. It was a more positive day for Cotton and Palladium and a flat day for Corn, Coffee and Soybean markets. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.05% lower; to see this index registered at 402.73. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.323 to Sterling, at 1.136 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 3.77 Brazilian Real.

The coffee markets started the day trading around par in London and with a degree of buoyancy in New York. As the morning progressed both markets slipped back to par and into softer territory, trading below par in London and on either side of par in New York. As the day progressed volume built and the New York market gained support, to bring about incremental increases and in positive territory in the afternoon where this market closed the day, just below the day high in positive territory. The London robusta market touched the low of the day as the afternoon progressed and slow to follow the seemingly more positive sentiment in New York, managed to clamber back toward unchanged and slip back again, to finish the day in softer territory near to the low of the day. The Brazil Carnival holidays are in full swing over the next few days and traditionally very limited commercial activity over the time, one may anticipate that this producer will be removed from the markets during the celebratory days ahead. The markets finished the week, on a mildly softer note in London and a positive track in New York, to set the close on Friday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

MAR   1,517 - 3                        MAR   96.95 + 1.75
MAY    1,534 - 3                        MAY 100.20 + 1.75
JULY   1,543 - 1                       JULY 102.85 + 1.70
SEPT  1,556 Unch                   SEPT 105.50 + 1.60
NOV    1,572 Unch                   DEC  109.25 + 1.55
JAN    1,589 + 1                       MAR  113.00 + 1.60
MAR   1,608 + 3                       MAY  115.35 + 1.60
MAY   1,627 + 3                       JULY  117.55 + 1.50
JULY  1 ,646 + 3                       SEPT 119.75 + 1.50
SEPT 1,665 + 3                       DEC   123.00 + 1.45