Coffee Market Report March 07 2019

6th March, 2019.
The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee production for the month of February at 8.70% lower than that of the same month last year, at a total 1,106,000 bags. This has contributed to the countries cumulative production for the first five months of the present October 2018 to September 2019 coffee year to register a cumulative 199,000 bags lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 6,071,000 bags.

The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of February were 14.59% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 1,256,000 bags. This has contributed to the country’s cumulative coffee exports for the first five months of the present October 2018 to September 2019 coffee year to be 350,000 bags higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 6,123,000 bags.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market increase their net short sold position within this market by 7.94% in the week leading up to 26th February; to register a new net short sold position of 74,448 Lots. This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 21,105,678 bags has most likely been further increased, following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed.

The May to May contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets registered at 30.39 usc/Lb., while this equates to 31.50% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange increased by 2,195 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,480,690 bags. The number of bags pending grading to the exchange were increased by 4,330 bags on the day, to register these pending grading stocks at 37,556 bags.

The commodity markets had a mixed day yesterday, following the news from China of a lower economic growth forecast, the US Dollar registered a firmer day and the Oil markets oscillating around unchanged. The China USA trade agreement uncertainty and approaching Brexit deadline an undercurrent to speculative investment uncertainty. It was a mildly positive day for the Oil markets, Cocoa flat, Sugar, Cotton, Copper, Corn, Coffee Silver and Platinum, Cocoa flat and a softer day for Orange Juice, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.46% higher; to see this index registered at 401.76. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.313 to Sterling, at 1.129 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 3.77 Brazilian Real.

The London Robusta market started the day on a mildly softer note, followed by a similarly lower opening in New York, both markets posted a recovery early in the session tracking back to par. A brief early morning push upward through par in New York met with waiting sellers to briefly push the market into negative territory albeit in a narrow range. The morning session in London turned positive with muted volumes throughout the session, held within a steady mildly positive range by midsession. The New York market met with additional volume and an upward momentum as the Americas’ opened for their business day, with the absence of Brazil as the major producer seller celebrates Carnival and speculative buying activity took hold with stops triggered along the way. The New York market continued to track upward toward the latter half of the session, retaining the gains until the last moments of the session to finish on a positive note, near to the high of the day. The London market followed the upward momentum although participation relatively modest and narrow, to finish the day in positive territory near to the days’ highs. The markets set the closes yesterday, after a fair volume day in New York and a modest volume day in London, on a positive note, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

MAR  1,511 + 6                         MAR   96.45 + 2.35
MAY   1,527 + 6                        MAY   99.65 + 2.30
JULY  1,538 + 5                        JULY 102.30 + 2.30
SEPT 1,554 + 5                        SEPT 104.95 + 2.30
NOV  1,570 + 5                         DEC 108.75 + 2.30
JAN   1,586 + 5                         MAR 112.50 + 2.30
MAR  1,603 + 5                         MAY 114.90 + 2.30
MAY  1,622 + 6                         JULY 117.20 + 2.30
JULY  1,639 + 7                        SEPT 119.45 + 2.30
SEPT 1,658 + 8                        DEC 122.75 + 2.30