Coffee Market Report April 01 2019

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market increase their net short sold position within the market by 1.15% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 26th.th. March; to register a new net short sold position of 75,799 Lots.   This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 21,488,681 bags has most likely been marginally increased, following the mixed but overall more negative trade which has since followed. 

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money sector of this market decrease their net short sold position within the market by 8.25% during the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 26th. March; to register a short-sold position of 29,845 Lots on the day.  This net short position which is the equivalent of 4,974,167 bags has most likely been increased again, following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed. 

The Indonesian government trade data from Sumatra which is the leading coffee producing island within Indonesia, has reported that the islands robusta coffee exports for the month of March were 6,407 bags or 6.22% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 109,390 bags. 

This marginally improved performance does however, follow some low volume export months and contributed to the islands cumulative robusta coffee exports for the first six months of the present October 2018 to September 2019 coffee year to be 300,061 bags or 23.09% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 999,242 bags. 

The Ivory Coast and West Africa’s largest robusta coffee producer, have reported that the countries robusta coffee exports for the first two months of this year were 61,200 or 108.09% higher than the same two months last year, at a total of 117,817 bags. 

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened on Friday, to register this at 30.33 usc/Lb., while this equates to 31.25% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.   

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 2,537 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 2,490,352 bags.  There was meanwhile, a larger in number 2,930 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 12,566 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade on Friday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a sideways track for much of the day.  The Cocoa and New York arabica Coffee markets ended the day on a positive note and the Sugar market was steady for the day, while the London robusta Coffee market ended the day on a softer note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.28% lower; to see this index registered at 405.16.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.307 to Sterling, at 1.123 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 3.923 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day on Friday on a positive note and with both markets maintaining this stance, into the early afternoon trade.  As the afternoon progressed the New York market attracted added support to extend the gains but this was short lived and the market soon dropped back into more modest positive territory, while the London market slipped back to and through par, to head towards a soft close for the day. 

The London market ended the day on a very negative note and with 91.3% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a modestly positive note and with 28.1% of the earlier gains of the day intact.  This close provides little in the way of direction and with a still relatively soft Brazil Real in play, one might expect little better than a slow and hesitant near to steady start for early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                      NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

MAY   1456 – 36                                            MAY     94.50 + 0.50

JUL    1471 – 21                                            JUL       97.05 + 0.45

SEP    1488 – 19                                            SEP      99.75 + 0.40

NOV   1505 – 18                                            DEC    103.55 + 0.30

JAN    1523 – 18                                            MAR   107.40 + 0.30

MAR   1540 – 19                                            MAY   109.85 + 0.30

MAY   1560 – 19                                            JUL     112.05 + 0.25

JUL    1580 – 19                                            SEP     114.20 + 0.30

SEP    1598 – 19                                            DEC    117.30 + 0.30

NOV   1616 – 19                                             MAR   120.45 + 0.35