Coffee Market Report April 14 2019

5th. April, 2019.
The Indonesian Agricultural Ministry have come forth with their latest coffee production forecasts for 2019, which they foresee to potentially reach 12,151,233 bags or 0.92% higher than their reported production estimate of the Indonesian coffee crop in 2018. This latest estimate might be viewed as fairly optimistic when compared against the general consensus of estimates for this crop that is traditionally approximately 85% Robusta production, to be somewhere closer to 10 million bags.

The July to July contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened yesterday, to register this at 31.35 usc/Lb., while this equates to 32.05% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange registered a decrease by 653 bags yesterday, to set these stocks at 2,492,800 bags. There was no change to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 5,861 bags.

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, limited fresh news came from the US China trade negotiations, the US Dollar strengthened on the day, ahead of the latest round of US Labour data that is due to be released later today. It was a lower day for the Oil markets, Orange Juice, Wheat, Copper and Palladium and a positive day for Sugar, Cocoa, Cotton, Corn, Soybean, Gold, Silver and Platinum markets. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.48% higher; to see this index registered at 412.20. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.309 to Sterling, at 1.122 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 3.858 Brazilian Real.

The London market opened the day on a softer note, followed by a modestly buoyant opening in New York. Both markets set a softer track early in the session albeit in a narrow range and sedate volumes. The New York market took a positive turn as the America’s opened their business day, the Brazil Real firmed through the session to contribute toward a limitation of selling activity, New York traded in positive territory through midsession. The London market posted a recovery from the early lows to register a similarly buoyant track to positive by midsession, the resting sellers at the top quickly took advantage to push London back through to negative territory, although this market gained upward momentum to trade through the afternoon around par, hardly changed. The New York market similarly slipped back toward the latter half of the day, held within a narrow range and steady at par. As the day drew to a close, both markets slipped below par to settle in negative territory and a close in London near to the day lows after a a mostly range-bound day, and around the lows of the day after a heavy volume and mostly positive day in New York, to set the close yesterday as follows:

London Robusta US$/MT New York Arabica Usc/Lb.

MAY    1,448 - 9               MAY    95.30 - 0.05
JULY   1,465 - 7               JULY    97.80 - 0.05
SEPT  1,481 - 6               SEPT 100.30 - 0.15
NOV    1,498 - 6               DEC  104.05 - 0.20
JAN     1,515 - 5               MAR  107.80 - 0.30
MAR   1,532 - 5                MAY  110.25 - 0.35
MAY   1,551 - 5                JULY  112.45 - 0.40
JULY   1,571 - 4               SEPT 114.55 - 0.40
SEPT 1,590 - 4                DEC  117.65 - 0.45
NOV   1,608 - 4               MAR  120.80 - 0.50