Coffee Market Report April 30 2019

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market decrease their net short sold position within the market by 3.89% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 23rd. April; to register a new net short sold position of 78,490 Lots.  Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market increased their net long position within the market by 3.15%, to register a net long position of 38,515 Lots on the day. 

Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market decreased their net short sold position within this market by 4.07%; to register a new net short sold position of 75,846 Lots. This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 21,502,005 bags has most likely been little changed to marginally increased, following the period of mixed but overall marginally more negative trade that has since followed and likewise, that of the Managed Money Fund sector of the market. 

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market increase their net short sold position within the market by 8.29% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 23rd. April; to register a short-sold position of 39,550 Lots.  This net short sold position which is the equivalent of 6,591,667 bags has most likely been little changed, following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed. 

Tomorrow is the Labour Day public holiday in 106 countries and including most of the major European consumer countries and along with, most of the main of the coffee producer countries.   Including Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, the Central American countries, Indonesia, India, the African coffee producers and while this does not include the U.S.A. and Great Britain and the coffee terminal markets shall remain active, it is unlikely that there shall be much excitement for the day within these markets.   

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 29.01 usc/Lb., while this equates to 331.31% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.  

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 16,296 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,450,142 bags.  There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 10,260 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, but with the overall macro commodity index tending softer for the day.  The Cocoa, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on positive note and the Natural Gas market was near to steady for the day, while the Oil, Sugar, Coffee, Cotton, Wheat and Corn markets ended the day on a softer note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.54% lower; to see this index registered at 397.88.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar near to steady and trading at 1.294 to Sterling, at 1.118 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 3.944 Brazilian Real. 

The London market started the day yesterday on a modestly positive note and the New York market on a negative note and with the London market soon slipping back to trade around par, while the New York market remained south of par into the early afternoon trade.   As the afternoon progressed the New York market started to attract additional selling pressure and with sell stops being triggered, to slip deeper into negative territory, while the London market followed suit and slipped south into negative territory in a more sedate manner.   Both markets did however and within an environment of relatively thin trade, bounce back from the lows in later trade, but to nevertheless end the day on an overall negative note.  

The London market ended the day on a negative note and with 46.7% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note and with 63% of the earlier losses of the day intact.   This negative start to the week does little to inspire confidence and one might expect to see little better than a near to steady start due for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                      NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

MAY   1381 – 7                                              MAY     91.35 – 1.35

JUL    1403 – 7                                              JUL       92.65 – 1.45

SEP    1417 – 8                                              SEP      95.00 – 1.50

NOV   1434 – 9                                              DEC      98.60 – 1.55

JAN    1452 – 9                                              MAR   102.15 – 1.65

MAR   1471 – 10                                            MAY   104.40 – 1.70

MAY   1492 – 10                                            JUL     106.55 – 1.75

JUL    1514 – 10                                            SEP     108.60 – 1.75

SEP    1534 – 9                                              DEC    111.65 – 1.75

NOV   1553 – 9                                               MAR   114.65 – 1.75