Coffee Market Report May 20 2019

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market decrease their net short sold position within this market by 6.25%%; over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 14th. May; to register a new net short sold position of 73,321 Lots.  This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 20,786,179 bags has most likely been increased again, following the period of mixed but overall negative trade that has since followed. 

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market decrease their net short sold position within the market by 9.04%% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 14th. May; to register a short-sold position of 37,628 Lots.  This net short sold position which is the equivalent of 6,271,333 bags has most likely been increased again, following the period of mixed but overall more negative trade that has since followed. 

The July to July contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday, to register this at 29.99 usc/Lb., while this equates to 33.7% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.  

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 825 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 2,434,832 bags.  There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 4,700 bags. 

The commodity markets were mostly on the back foot on Friday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking a softer track for the day.   The Corn market nevertheless ended the day on a positive note, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice, Wheat, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets, is 1.03% lower, to see this index registered at 390.28.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.272 to Sterling, at 1.116 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.101 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day on Friday on a softer note, and with the London market soon adding to its losses to see both markets taking a negative track, into the early afternoon trade.  As the afternoon progressed and with the combination of the negative influences of the softer overall macro commodity index and the weaker Brazil Real, both markets lost further value and with sell stops being triggered, to accentuate the losses.  Setting the market on track, for a very soft close for the day. 

The London market ended the day on a negative note and with 79.1% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market likewise ended the day on a negative note and with 82.8% of the earlier losses of the day intact.  This soft close does not inspire confidence, but with the markets having at least had the ability to bounce back a little from the lows might assist for a hesitant and cautious near to steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                      NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

 

MAY   1281 – 34                                            MAY     87.35 – 2.65

JUL    1301 – 34                                            JUL       89.00 – 2.65

SEP    1320 – 33                                            SEP      91.35 – 2.55

NOV   1342 – 31                                            DEC      94.85 – 2.55

JAN    1362 – 30                                            MAR     98.35 – 2.50

MAR   1382 – 29                                            MAY   100.70 – 2.45

MAY   1403 – 29                                            JUL     102.85 – 2.35

JUL    1424 – 29                                            SEP     104.90 – 2.25

SEP    1445 – 29                                            DEC    107.95 – 2.05