Coffee Market Report July 22 2019

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market increase their net short sold position within this market by 17.91%; over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 16th. July; to register a new net short sold position of 20,863 Lots.  This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 5,914,622 bags has most likely been little changed, following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed. 

The September to September contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday, to register this at 42.93 usc/Lb., while this equates to 40.01% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 25 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 2,363,115 bags.  There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 32,376 bags. 

The commodity markets and with the US Dollar showing some degree of muscle were mostly on the upside on Friday, to see the overall macro commodity index tending firmer for the day.   The Oil, Sugar, Cocoa, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice, Wheat, Corn, Soy Bean and Silver markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Natural Gas, Coffee and Gold markets ended the day on a softer note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.87% higher; to see this index registered at 398.94.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.250 to Sterling, at 1.122 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 3.747 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day on Friday trading marginally south of par, but moving back towards par and taking a steady track, into the early afternoon trade.  As the afternoon progressed the market remained close to par but with the threat of weekend frost for south east Brazil tending to be seen to be unlikely and accompanied by a weakening of the Brazil Real, both markets tended softer for late trade. 

The London market ended the day on a negative note and with 80% of the earlier loses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note and with 81.25% of the earlier loses of the day intact. This softer close and with the Brazil Real remaining softer is unlikely to inspire confidence and one would think that the markets are due little better near to steady start for early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                      NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

JUL    1380 – 13                                            JUL    105.85 – 1.30

SEP    1419 – 8                                             SEP    107.30 – 1.30

NOV   1447 – 9                                             DEC    111.15 – 1.30

JAN    1474 – 8                                             MAR   114.80 – 1.35

MAR   1500 – 7                                             MAY   117.10 – 1.30

MAY   1524 – 6                                             JUL    119.20 – 1.30

JUL    1547 – 5                                              SEP    121.05 – 1.30

SEP    1570 – 5                                              DEC   123.95 – 1.25

NOV   1587 – 5                                              MAR   126.75 – 1.30

JAN    1603 – 5                                              MAY   128.65 – 1.25