Coffee Market Report August 15 2019

The November to December contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday; to register this at 37.21 usc/Lb.   This equates to 38.01% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 1,531 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,363,949 bags.  There was meanwhile a larger in number increase by 4,420 bags to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 22,648 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a sideways track for the day. The Natural Gas, Cotton, Wheat, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a positive note and the Orange Juice market was steady for the day, while the Oil, Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Corn and Soybean markets ending the day on a softer note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.50% lower; to see this index registered at 380.45.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.207 to Sterling, at 1.115 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.051 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets shrugged off the influence of the previous days positive close and started the day trading on a softer note, with the New York market maintaining this stance, into the early afternoon trade, while the London market recovered to take a modest positive track into early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the New York market continued on a modest negative track to end the day on a softer close, while the London market fell back from the highs of the day to close on a modest positive note. 

The London market ended the day on a modest positive note and with 22.2% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a negative note and with 75% of the earlier losses of the day intact.  This close and with the Brazil Real remaining softer is unlikely to inspire confidence and one would expect little better than a near to steady start due for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                      NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

SEP    1309 + 4                                              SEP      94.45 – 1.90

NOV   1338 + 6                                              DEC     97.90 – 1.80

JAN    1361 + 5                                              MAR   101.50 – 1.80 

MAR   1390 + 5                                              MAY   103.80 – 1.85

MAY   1417 + 3                                              JUL    106.00 – 1.85

JUL    1438 – 3                                              SEP    108.05 – 1.85

SEP    1460 – 6                                              DEC   111.10 – 1.85

NOV   1484 – 6                                               MAR   114.10 – 1.85

JAN    1507 – 6                                               MAY   116.20 – 1.85

MAR   1529 – 4                                               JUL    118.20 – 1.85