Coffee Market Report August 19 2019

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market increase their net short sold position within this market by 15%; over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 13th. August; to register a new net short sold position of 42,071 Lots.  This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 11,926,942 bags has most likely been further increased, following the period of overall more negative trade that has since followed. 

The November to December contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday; to register this at 35.85 usc/Lb.   This equates to 37.21% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decreased by 217 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 2,365,874 bags.  There was meanwhile a larger in number decrease by 11,921 bags to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 5,406 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade on Friday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a sideways track for the day. The Oil, Sugar, Cotton, Orange Juice, Wheat, Corn and Soybean markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Natural Gas, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.11% lower; to see this index registered at 377.80.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.215 to Sterling, at 1.109 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.002 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day on Friday trading close to par, but the London market trading mostly to the softer side of par, while the New York market trading mostly to the north of par and the markets holding this stance into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed both markets started to come under renewed pressure, to see the markets fall back into negative territory and head towards a soft close for the day. 

The London market ended the day on a negative note and with 84% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note and with 86.8% of the earlier losses of the day intact.  This close does little to inspire confidence but with the evidence of the increase in the net short sold status of the New York market it might bring to the fore some degree of caution, which could see the markets set for a hesitant steady start for early trade today. Against the prices set on Friday, as follows:  

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                      NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

SEP    1304 – 20                                              SEP      92.85 – 1.70

NOV   1333 – 21                                              DEC      96.35 – 1.65 

JAN    1357 – 21                                              MAR     99.90 – 1.60 

MAR   1383 – 21                                              MAY   102.30 – 1.55

MAY   1411 – 18                                              JUL    104.50 – 1.55

JUL    1433 – 16                                              SEP    106.65 – 1.45

SEP    1456 – 15                                              DEC   109.70 – 1.40

NOV   1481 – 16                                              MAR   112.80 – 1.25

JAN    1502 – 18                                              MAY   114.85 – 1.25

MAR   1523 – 19                                              JUL    116.75 – 1.25