Coffee Market Report August 21 2019

The Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology have reported that conditions within the Pacific Ocean remain neutral and with no evidence of either an El Niño or an La Niña phenomenon’s in play, which would indicate normal weather conditions for the pacific rim coffee producing countries. 

The November to December contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened yesterday; to register this at 35.20 usc/Lb.   This equates to 36.96% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to remain unchanged yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,363,532 bags.  There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 6,617 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking a steady track for the day. The Coffee markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Sugar and Cocoa markets ended the day on a softer note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.17% higher; to see this index registered at 377.26.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.215 to Sterling, at 1.109 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.053 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading close to but mostly to the positive side of par, to maintain this stance, into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed both markets once again started to come under pressure and moved south into negative territory, but perhaps with some support from some firming of the Brazil Real, to bounce back up into modest positive territory. 

The London market ended the day on a modestly positive note and with 38.5% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a positive note and with 52.9% of the earlier gains of the day intact.  This close provides little indication of direction and one would think to see another low volume hesitant steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                        NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

SEP    1293 + 5                                                SEP       91.45 + 0.30

NOV   1324 + 5                                                 DEC      95.25 + 0.45 

JAN    1350 + 5                                                 MAR     98.80 + 0.40 

MAR   1378 + 6                                                 MAY   101.20 + 0.40

MAY   1407 + 6                                                 JUL    103.45 + 0.35

JUL    1434 + 10                                               SEP    105.55 + 0.35

SEP    1461 + 12                                               DEC   108.65 + 0.40

NOV   1488 + 14                                               MAR   111.75 + 0.40

JAN    1514 + 18                                               MAY   113.80 + 0.40

MAR   1534 + 18                                               JUL    115.80 + 0.40