Coffee Market Report September 09 2019

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market increased their net short sold position within this market by 12.7%; over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 3rd. September; to register a new net short sold position of 52,009 Lots.  This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 14,744,321 bags has most likely been marginally decreased again, following the period of mixed but overall more positive trade that has since followed. 

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market increased their net short sold position within the market by 3.13% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 3rd. September; to register a short-sold position of 42,888 Lots.  This net short sold position which is the equivalent of 7,148,000 bags has most likely been marginally decreased again, following the period of mixed but overall more positive trade that has since followed. 

The November to December contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened on Friday; to register this at 38.31 usc/Lb.   This equates to 39.47% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 7,572 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 2,327,093 bags.  There was meanwhile a smaller in number 1,710 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 11,485 bags. 

The commodity markets were mostly softer in trade on Friday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking a softer track for the day. The Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, Cocoa and Coffee markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice, Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.6% lower; to see this index registered at 386.17.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.227 to Sterling, at 1.102 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.063 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day on Friday trading around par, with the markets maintaining this stance into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed and with some degree of recovery for the Brazil Real coming into play, both markets attracted support and headed into positive territory and with buy stops being triggered, to accentuate the gains. Both markets managed to hold onto their gains and to take a positive sideways track, towards a relatively strong close for the day. 

The London market ended the day on a positive note and with 85.2% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note and with 86.8% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This close and with the Brazil Real maintaining its new found muscle, is likely to inspire a follow through steady start for early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:  

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                          NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

SEP    1272 + 23                                                         SEP      93.85 + 1.65

NOV   1295 + 23                                                         DEC      97.05 + 1.65 

JAN    1317 + 22                                                         MAR   100.45 + 1.65 

MAR   1340 + 22                                                         MAY   102.75 + 1.65

MAY   1366 + 22                                                         JUL    104.80 + 1.65

JUL    1392 + 21                                                         SEP    106.80 + 1.65

SEP    1418 + 20                                                         DEC   109.70 + 1.60

NOV   1444 + 19                                                         MAR   112.65 + 1.60

JAN    1471 + 19                                                         MAY   114.65 + 1.65

MAR   1495 + 19                                                         JUL    116.60 + 1.65