Coffee Market Report September 16 2019

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market decreased their net short sold position within this market by 3.28%; over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 10th. September; to register a new net short sold position of 50,302 Lots.  This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 14,260,394 bags has most likely been marginally decreased again, following the period of mixed but overall more positive trade that has since followed. 

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market increased their net short sold position within the market by 5.94% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 10th. September; to register a short-sold position of 45,434 Lots.  This net short sold position which is the equivalent of 7,572,333 bags has most likely been little changed, following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed. 

The Ivory Coast have reported that the countries coffee exports for the first seven months of this year have increased by 271,817 bags or 42.46%, to register these exports at 912,000 bags.   This report indicating that the country is well on track to possibly exceed the forecast exports of 1.4 million bags, for this calendar year.  

The November to December contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday; to register this at 42.97 usc/Lb.   This equates to 41.82% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.   

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 825 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 2,315,713 bags.  There was meanwhile a smaller in number 640 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 26,114 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade on Friday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a sideways to buoyant track for the day.   The Natural Gas, Sugar, Cocoa, Cotton, Copper, Corn and Soybean markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Oil, Coffee, Orange Juice, Wheat, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.34% higher; to see this index registered at 393.90.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.246 to Sterling, at 1.107 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.084 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day on Friday trading near to par and taking this soft track, into the early afternoon trade.   As the afternoon progressed, the markets continued to take a softer and mostly sideways track and to encounter the negative influence of a marginally softer Brazil Real, to add to the losses for late trade. 

The London market ended the day on a negative note and with 81.2% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note and with 54.8% of the earlier gains of the day intact.  This close seemingly indicates that the thoughts of dry weather in Brazil are losing their influence upon sentiment and one might suspect, shall see the markets due for little better than a follow through near to steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:  

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                 NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. 

SEP    1301 – 13                                                          SEP      99.50 – 0.85

NOV   1318 – 13                                                          DEC    102.75 – 0.85 

JAN    1344 – 12                                                          MAR   106.30 – 0.85 

MAR   1371 – 12                                                          MAY   108.60 – 0.85

MAY   1398 – 11                                                          JUL    110.75 – 0.90

JUL    1424 – 12                                                          SEP    112.65 – 1.00

SEP    1451 – 12                                                          DEC   115.60 – 1.05

NOV   1478 – 13                                                          MAR   118.50 – 1.10

JAN    1505 – 13                                                          MAY   120.45 – 1.10

MAR   1529 – 13                                                          JUL    122.25 – 1.15