Coffee Market Report October 01 2019

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market increase their net short sold position within the market by 5.9% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 24th. September; to register a new net short sold position of 45,849 Lots.  Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market decreased their net long position within the market by 1.7%, to register a net long position of 41,526 Lots on the day. 

Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market increased their net short sold position within this market by 1.88%; to register a new net short sold position of 42,848 Lots. This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 12,147,218 bags has most likely been decreased further, following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed and likewise, that of the Managed Money Fund sector of the market. 

The December to January contracts arbitrage between the New York and London markets narrowed yesterday; to register this at 40.37 usc/Lb.  This equates to 39.91% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 505 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,277,783 bags.  There was a larger in number decrease to the number of bags pending grade to this exchange, by 3,906 bags; to register these pending grading stocks at 29,673 bags. 

The commodity markets were mostly softer in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a sideways track for the day. The Sugar, New York Arabica Coffee, Wheat, Corn and Soybean markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Cocoa, London Robusta Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.469% lower; to see this index registered at 392.87.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.229 to Sterling, at 1.090 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.156 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading around par and taking a sideways track, into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the New York market started to attract some value and show some buoyancy, but to tail off and end the day close to par. The London market continued on its sideways track for much of the afternoon trade to end the day on a modest soft note. 

The London market ended the day on a modest soft note, but with only 7.1% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a modest positive note and with 16.1% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This close provides little in the way of direction and is likely to set the markets for a hesitant steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                              NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

NOV   1320 – 1                                                      DEC    101.15 + 0.25

JAN    1340 – 1                                                      MAR   104.70 + 0.25

MAR   1363 – 3                                                      MAY   107.00 + 0.30

MAY   1388 – 3                                                      JUL    109.10+ 0.30

JUL    1413 – 4                                                      SEP    111.05 + 0.40

SEP    1440 – 3                                                      DEC   113.90 + 0.50

NOV   1466 – 3                                                      MAR   116.70 + 0.50

JAN    1492 – 3                                                      MAY   118.50 + 0.45

MAR   1516 – 3                                                      JUL    120.35 + 0.45