Coffee Market Report October 02 2019

The Brazil government have reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of September were 299,100 bags or 9.9% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 2,692,800 bags. 

The National Coffee Institute of Honduras have reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of September were 16.2% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 248,940 bags. This number has contributed to the cumulative coffee exports for the October 2018 to September 2019 coffee year to be 5.5% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 6.8 million bags. 

The Indonesian government trade data from Sumatra, which is the leading coffee producing island within Indonesia, has reported that the islands robusta coffee exports for the month of September were 150,061 bags or 75% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 350,683 bags. This number has contributed to the cumulative coffee exports for the October 2018 to September 2019 coffee year to be 415,313 bags or 25.9% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 2,017,605 bags. 

The December to January contracts arbitrage between the New York and London markets broadened yesterday; to register this at 41.02 usc/Lb.  This equates to 40.47% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.  

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 5,623 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,272,160 bags.  There was a smaller in number decrease to the number of bags pending grade to this exchange, by 389 bags; to register these pending grading stocks at 29,284 bags. 

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to decrease by 17,500 bags over the weeks of trade leading up to Monday 30th September, to see these stocks registered at 2,571,000 bags, on the day. 

The commodity markets were mostly firmer in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a positive sideways track for the day. The Natural Gas, Sugar, Cocoa, New York Arabica Coffee, Cotton, Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Oil, Copper and Orange Juice markets ended the day on a softer note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.609% higher; to see this index registered at 395.26.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.228 to Sterling, at 1.093 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.157 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading around par and taking a sideways track, into the early afternoon trade. The New York market started to attract some value late in the days trade and show some buoyancy, but to tail off and end the day close to par. The London market continued its sideways track for much of the afternoon trade to end the day on a softer note. 

The London market ended the day on soft note, but with only 69.2% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a modest positive note and with 44.4% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This close provides little in the way of direction and is likely to set the markets for a hesitant steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                              NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

NOV   1311 – 9                                                        DEC    101.35 + 0.20

JAN    1330 – 10                                                      MAR   104.95 + 0.25

MAR   1353 – 10                                                      MAY   107.25 + 0.25

MAY   1376 – 12                                                      JUL    109.35 + 0.25

JUL    1399 – 14                                                      SEP    111.35 + 0.30

SEP    1423 – 17                                                      DEC   114.15 + 0.25

NOV   1448 – 18                                                      MAR   117.00 + 0.30

JAN    1474 – 18                                                      MAY   118.85 + 0.35

MAR   1498 – 18                                                      JUL    120.65 + 0.30