Coffee Market Report October 04 2019

The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee production for the month of September was 38,000 bags or 3.62% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 1,088,000 bags. This number has contributed to the country’s cumulative coffee production for the October 2018 to September 2019 coffee year to be 55,000 bags or 0.4% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 13,866,000 bags. 

The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have also reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of September were 87,000 bags or 7.88% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 1,017,000 bags. This number has contributed to the country’s cumulative coffee exports for the October 2018 to September 2019 coffee year to be 828,000 bags or 6.4% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 13,784,000 bags.

The Ivory Coast have reported that the countries coffee exports for the first eight months of this year have increased by 434,383 bags or 43.38%, to register these exports at 1,074,567 bags.   This report indicating that the country is well on track to possibly exceed the forecast exports of 1.4 million bags, for this calendar year. 

Internal Coffee Trade in Vietnam remained quiet as the start of the new October 2019 to September 2020 coffee season began this week, with this being said it is predicted that trade will remain lacklustre until early November when supply from the new season is likely to be available. 

The December to January contracts arbitrage between the New York and London markets broadened yesterday; to register this at 41.68 usc/Lb.  This equates to 40.84% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 4,107 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,263,587 bags.  There was an increase to the number of bags pending grade to this exchange, by 2,671 bags; to register these pending grading stocks at 35,857 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a positive sideways track for the day. The Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, Orange Juice, Corn and Gold markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, Copper, Wheat, Soybean and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.252% higher; to see this index registered at 395.93.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.234 to Sterling, at 1.097 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.084 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading around par, both markets maintained this stance into early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the New York market started to gain a degree of late in the day support to move into positive territory, the London market followed suit but in a more modest manner. 

The London market ended the day on a modest positive note, and with 61.5% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a positive note, and with 63% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This close might assist towards some degree of confidence and to set the markets on track for a steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                              NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

NOV   1312 + 8                                                       DEC    102.05 + 1.45

JAN    1331 + 9                                                       MAR   105.65 + 1.45

MAR   1354 + 9                                                       MAY   107.95 + 1.45

MAY   1378 + 9                                                       JUL    110.05 + 1.50

JUL    1401 + 9                                                       SEP    112.00 + 1.50

SEP    1426 + 10                                                     DEC   114.80 + 1.45

NOV   1452 + 11                                                     MAR   117.60 + 1.45

JAN    1477 + 10                                                     MAY   119.40 + 1.45

MAR   1502 + 11                                                     JUL    121.15 + 1.45