Coffee Market Report October 07 2019

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market decreased their net short sold position within this market by 5.4% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 1st. October; to register a new short sold position of 40,535 Lots. This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 11,491,493 bags has most likely been little changed, following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed. 

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market increase their net short sold position within the market by 5.5% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 1st. October; to register a short-sold position of 49,126 Lots.  This net short sold position which is the equivalent of 8,187,667 bags has most likely been little changed, following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed. 

The December to January contracts arbitrage between the New York and London markets narrowed on Friday; to register this at 39.49 usc/Lb.  This equates to 39.89% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 2,521 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 2,266,108 bags.  There was a larger in number decrease to the number of bags pending grade to this exchange, by 4,108 bags; to register these pending grading stocks at 31,749 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade on Friday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a sideways track for the day. The Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice, Wheat and Soybean Markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Cocoa, Coffee, Corn, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.221% lower; to see this index registered at 395.056.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.232 to Sterling, at 1.098 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.056 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day on Friday trading around par, both markets maintained this stance into early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the New York market with sell stops being triggered, fell back into negative territory in a more aggressive manner. This brought to the fore additional selling pressure for the New York market, while the London market declined further, but in a more sedate manner. 

The London market ended the day on a negative note, and with 68.9% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note, and with 85.9% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This close is unlikely to inspire much in the way of confidence and one might expect to see only a near to steady start due for the markets for early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                              NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

NOV   1292 – 20                                                      DEC      99.00 – 3.05

JAN    1312 – 19                                                      MAR   102.55 – 3.10

MAR   1335 – 19                                                      MAY   104.90 – 3.05

MAY   1360 – 18                                                      JUL    107.00 – 3.05

JUL    1385 – 16                                                      SEP    109.00 – 3.00

SEP    1410 – 16                                                      DEC   111.80 – 3.00

NOV   1435 – 17                                                      MAR   114.55 – 3.05

JAN    1460 – 17                                                      MAY   116.35 – 3.05

MAR   1485 – 17                                                      JUL    118.15 – 3.00