Coffee Market Report October 08 2019

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market decrease their net short sold position within the market by 0.66% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 1st. October; to register a new net short sold position of 45,548 Lots.  Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market decreased their net long position within the market by 0.11%, to register a net long position of 41,482 Lots on the day. 

Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market decreased their net short sold position within this market by 5.4%; to register a new net short sold position of 40,535 Lots. This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 11,491,493 bags has most likely been little changed, following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed and likewise, that of the Managed Money Fund sector of the market. 

The December to January contracts arbitrage between the New York and London markets narrowed yesterday; to register this at 39.12 usc/Lb.  This equates to 40.33% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.   

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 5,838 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,260,270 bags.  There was a larger in number increase to the number of bags pending grade to this exchange, by 12,749 bags; to register these pending grading stocks at 44,498 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a negative sideways track for the day. The Oil, Natural Gas, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice and Corn markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, Wheat, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.318% lower; to see this index registered at 393.799.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.230 to Sterling, at 1.098 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.106 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading on the softer side of par, both markets maintained this stance into early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the New York Market started to attract increase selling pressure and to accentuate the losses, with the London market following suit. Late in the afternoon trade both markets did bounce back from the lows of the day only to encounter more selling pressure and dip back deeper into negative territory. 

The London market ended the day on a negative note, and with 92.6% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note, and with 83.3% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This close for the markets is not likely to inspire confidence and one might expect to see little better than a hesitant near to steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                              NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

NOV   1253 – 39                                                      DEC      97.00 – 2.00

JAN    1276 – 36                                                      MAR   100.65 – 1.90

MAR   1302 – 33                                                      MAY   102.95 – 1.95

MAY   1329 – 31                                                      JUL    105.20 – 1.80

JUL    1355 – 30                                                      SEP    107.20 – 1.80

SEP    1381 – 29                                                      DEC   110.10 – 1.70

NOV   1407 – 28                                                      MAR   113.00 – 1.55

JAN    1433 – 27                                                      MAY   114.75 – 1.60

MAR   1459 – 26                                                      JUL    116.50 – 1.65