Coffee Market Report October 15 2019

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market decrease their net short sold position within the market by 18.42% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 8th. October; to register a new net short sold position of 53,936 Lots.  Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market decreased their net long position within the market by 0.05%, to register a net long position of 41,463 Lots on the day. 

Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market increased their net short sold position within this market by 17.89%; to register a new net short sold position of 47,787 Lots. This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 13,547,403 bags has most likely been further decreased, following the period of overall more negative trade that has since followed and likewise, that of the Managed Money Fund sector of the market. 

The December to January contracts arbitrage between the New York and London markets broadened yesterday; to register this at 36.97 usc/Lb.  This equates to 38.98% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.  

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 434 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,237,470 bags.  There was a larger in number decrease to the number of bags pending grade to this exchange, by 2,485 bags; to register these pending grading stocks at 58,863 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a firm sideways track for the day. The Sugar, Coffee, Copper, Orange Juice, Wheat, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a positive note, the Corn market remained unchanged for the day, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Cocoa and Cotton markets ended the day on a softer note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.052 % higher; to see this index registered at 398.595.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.264 to Sterling, at 1.103 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.125 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading around par, both markets showed signs of buoyancy to trade modestly firmer into early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the markets attracted support to move higher into positive territory with both markets soon hitting a ceiling to limit gains for the day. 

The London market ended the day on a positive note, and with 52.9% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note, and with 60.5% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This close might assist towards some degree of confidence and to set the markets for a follow through steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                              NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

NOV   1251 + 9                                                          DEC      94.85 + 1.15

JAN    1276 + 13                                                        MAR     98.45 + 1.10

MAR   1298 + 11                                                        MAY   100.75 + 1.05

MAY   1325 + 11                                                        JUL    102.95 + 1.00

JUL    1351 + 10                                                        SEP    105.00 + 1.00

SEP    1378 + 9                                                          DEC   107.95 + 0.95

NOV   1406 + 8                                                          MAR   110.80 + 0.90

JAN    1434 + 8                                                          MAY   112.60 + 0.90

MAR   1462 + 8                                                          JUL    114.35 + 0.90