Coffee Market Report October 23 2019

The December to January contracts arbitrage between the New York and London markets broadened yesterday; to register this at 42.29 usc/Lb.  This equates to 42.76% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.  

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 163 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,259,834 bags, with 87% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,966,920 bags and the remaining 13% being held in the USA at a total of 292,914 bags.  There was a larger in number decrease to the number of bags pending grade to this exchange, by 1,949 bags; to register these pending grading stocks at 30,509 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a soft sideways track for the day. The Oil, Natural Gas, Coffee, Cotton, Corn, Soybean and Gold markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Sugar, Cocoa, Copper, Orange Juice, Wheat and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note.   The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.031 % lower; to see this index registered at 399.418.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar marginally softer but steady, trading at 1.286 to Sterling, at 1.112 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.080 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading to the south of par, both the London and the New York market maintained this modest soft stance into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the New York market with buying support gained traction with the London market following suit in a more sedate manner. Both the London and New York markets maintained this firm track to close near the highs of the day.

The London market ended the day on a positive note, and with 57% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note, and with 92.7% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This close and with the Brazil Real showing some signs of buoyancy one might think the markets are due for a follow through hesitant steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                 NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

NOV   1217 + 8                                                            DEC      98.90 + 2.55

JAN    1248 + 4                                                            MAR   102.30 + 2.60

MAR   1272 + 3                                                            MAY   104.50 + 2.60

MAY   1296 + 3                                                            JUL    106.45 + 2.55

JUL    1321 + 3                                                            SEP    108.20 + 2.55

SEP    1348 + 4                                                            DEC   110.80 + 2.45

NOV   1376 + 4                                                            MAR   113.40 + 2.45

JAN    1404 + 5                                                            MAY   115.00 + 2.45

MAR   1431 + 4                                                            JUL    116.55 + 2.45