Coffee Market Report October 29 2019

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market decrease their net short sold position within the market by 1.85% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 22nd. October; to register a new net short sold position of 64,065 Lots.  Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market increased their net long position within the market by 4.90%, to register a net long position of 43,330 Lots on the day. 

Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market decreased their net short sold position within this market by 5.21%; to register a new net short sold position of 55,347 Lots. This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 15,698,284 bags has most likely been little changed, following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed and likewise, that of the Managed Money Fund sector of the market. 

The December to January contracts arbitrage between the New York and London markets narrowed yesterday; to register this at 42.58 usc/Lb.  This equates to 42.37% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.  

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 1,657 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,239,849 bags, with 87.4% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,956,830 bags and the remaining 12.6% being held in the USA at a total of 283,019 bags.  There was a larger in number decrease to the number of bags pending grade to this exchange, by 6,005 bags; to register these pending grading stocks at 21,859 bags.

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a soft sideways track for the day. The Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper and Soybean markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Cotton, Orange Juice, Wheat, Corn, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.056 % lower; to see this index registered at 402.458.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.285 to Sterling, at 1.109 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 3.990 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading around par, with the London market in modest positive territory and the New York market in modest negative territory, both markets maintained this stance into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed The New York market encountered some buying support to move into positive territory, While the London market continued to trade firmer, however the markets did hit a ceiling and drop back from the highs of the day to close on a positive note. 

The London market ended the day on a positive note, and with 65.8% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note, and with 77.8% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This close, albeit that both the London and the New York markets did hit a ceiling and come off their highs of the day, might nevertheless inspire some degree of confidence. To possibly set the markets for another hesitant steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                 NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

NOV   1245 + 25                                                            DEC    100.50 + 1.05

JAN    1277 + 27                                                            MAR   103.95 + 1.10

MAR   1297 + 25                                                            MAY   106.10 + 1.15

MAY   1315 + 20                                                            JUL    108.20 + 1.25

JUL    1338 + 18                                                            SEP    109.95 + 1.25

SEP    1364 + 17                                                            DEC   112.60 + 1.25

NOV   1390 + 15                                                            MAR   115.25 + 1.15

JAN    1417 + 15                                                            MAY   116.85 + 1.10

MAR   1443 + 15                                                            JUL    118.45 + 1.05