Coffee Market Report October 31 2019

The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority UCDA have reported that their country’s coffee exports for the month of September were 69,020 bags or 23.54% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 362,219 bags. This has contributed to the country’s cumulative coffee exports for the full twelve months of the October 2018 to September 2019 coffee year to have been 134,371 bags or 3.12% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 4,439,968 bags. 

The December to January contracts arbitrage between the New York and London markets narrowed yesterday; to register this at 40.79 usc/Lb.  This equates to 41.06% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.  

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 928 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,240,957 bags, with 87.5% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,959,796 bags and the remaining 12.5% being held in the USA at a total of 281,161 bags.  There was a larger in number decrease to the number of bags pending grade to this exchange, by 3,995 bags; to register these pending grading stocks at 15,543 bags. 

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to decrease by 15,000 bags over the weeks of trade leading up to Monday 28th October, to see these stocks registered at 2,642,833 bags, on the day 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a sideways track for the day. The Sugar, Coffee, Cotton, Orange Juice, Corn, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Cocoa, Copper, Wheat and Soybean markets ended the day on a softer note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.0872 % higher; to see this index registered at 402.817.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.291 to Sterling, at 1.116 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 3.988 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading marginally south of par, with both the London market and the New York market in modest negative territory, both markets maintained this stance into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed both the London and the New York markets gained support to trade in modest firm territory. 

The London market ended the day on a positive note, and with 94% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note, and with 28.6% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This close and with a marginally firmer Brazil Real in play is likely to inspire a follow through hesitant steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                 NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

NOV   1262 + 11                                                           DEC      99.35 + 0.40  

JAN    1291 + 15                                                           MAR   102.80 + 0.30  

MAR   1309 + 13                                                           MAY   104.90 + 0.20

MAY   1327 + 15                                                           JUL    106.95 + 0.10

JUL    1348 + 14                                                           SEP    108.70 + 0.05

SEP    1372 + 13                                                           DEC   111.30   Unch

NOV   1397 + 12                                                           MAR   113.95   Unch

JAN    1421 + 9                                                             MAY   115.60 + 0.10

MAR   1447 + 9                                                             JUL    117.15 + 0.10