Coffee Market Report November 08 2019

Reuters has reported that domestic Coffee Prices in Vietnam inched higher this week following the increase in the terminal coffee market prices, farmers have started to pick cherries as it is estimated that a quarter of the Vietnam coffee crop has fully ripened.  

The December to January contracts arbitrage between the New York and London markets narrowed yesterday; to register this at 46.59 usc/Lb.  This equates to 42.7% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.  

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to remain unchanged yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,227,087 bags, with 87.3% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,943,375 bags and the remaining 12.7% being held in the USA at a total of 283,712 bags.  There was no change to the number of bags pending grade to this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 10,596 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a soft sideways track for the day. The Oil, Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice, and Soybean markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Natural Gas, Sugar, Cocoa, Wheat, Corn and Gold markets ended the day on a softer note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.280 % lower; to see this index registered at 406.028.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.281 to Sterling, at 1.105 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.100 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading on a modest soft note, The New York market retained this soft stance into the early afternoon trade, while the London market started to attract follow through support to trade in positive territory for the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the New York market started to gain late in the day support to trade in positive territory. Both the London and the New York markets maintained this stance for the late afternoon trade. 

The London market ended the day on a positive note, and with 86.7% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note, and with 68.8% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This close and with the late recovery for the markets, might inspire some degree of confidence, but with the Brazil Real marginally softer again, one might not expect better than a near to steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                 NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

NOV   1349 + 33                                                          DEC    109.10 + 1.10  

JAN    1378 + 26                                                          MAR   112.60 + 1.05  

MAR   1397 + 25                                                          MAY   114.95 + 1.15

MAY   1416 + 26                                                          JUL    117.15 + 1.25

JUL    1435 + 25                                                          SEP    119.00 + 1.30

SEP    1455 + 24                                                          DEC   121.25 + 1.05

NOV   1475 + 24                                                          MAR   123.65 + 0.90

JAN    1496 + 23                                                          MAY   125.30 + 0.95

MAR   1520 + 23                                                          JUL    126.90 + 1.00