Coffee Market Report November 11 2019

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market decrease their net short sold position within this market by 15.04% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 5th. November; to register a new short sold position of 58,415 Lots. This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 16,560,394 bags has most likely been marginally decreased, following the period of mixed but overall firmer trade that has since followed. 

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market decrease their net short sold position within the market by 6.23% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 5th. November; to register a short-sold position of 50,457 Lots.  This net short sold position which is the equivalent of 8,409,500 bags has most likely been little changed, following the period of mixed but overall firmer trade that has since followed. 

The December to January contracts arbitrage between the New York and London markets broadened on Friday; to register this at 46.67 usc/Lb.  This equates to 42.64% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.  

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 2,750 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 2,224,337 bags, with 87.2% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,940,625 bags and the remaining 12.8% being held in the USA at a total of 283,712 bags.  There was no change to the number of bags pending grade to this exchange, to register these pending grading stocks at 10,596 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade on Friday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a firm sideways track for the day. The Oil, Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, Orange Juice, and Corn markets ended the day on a positive note, the Natural Gas market remained unchanged, while the Copper, Wheat, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note.   The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.0168 % higher; to see this index registered at 406.097.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.280 to Sterling, at 1.102 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.164 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day on Friday trading on a modest soft note, The New York market retained this soft stance into the early afternoon trade, while the London market started to attract follow through support to trade in positive territory for the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the New York market started to gain late in the day support to trade in positive territory. Both the London and the New York markets maintained this stance for the late afternoon trade to close on a modest positive note for the day. 

The London market ended the day on a modest positive note, and with 66.7% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise modest positive note, and with 43.8% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This close and with the late recovery for the markets, might inspire some degree of confidence, but with the Brazil Real marginally softer again, one might not expect better than a near to steady start for early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                 NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

NOV   1354 + 5                                                          DEC    109.45 + 0.35  

JAN    1384 + 6                                                          MAR   112.85 + 0.25  

MAR   1406 + 9                                                          MAY   115.20 + 0.25

MAY   1426 + 10                                                        JUL    117.40+ 0.25

JUL    1446 + 11                                                        SEP    119.30 + 0.30

SEP    1465 + 10                                                        DEC   121.55 + 0.30

NOV   1484 + 9                                                          MAR   123.90 + 0.25

JAN    1504 + 8                                                          MAY   125.45 + 0.15

MAR   1528 + 8                                                          JUL    127.00 + 0.10