Coffee Market Report November 14 2019

Reuters have reported that rains in the last week over much of Brazil have had better coverage than the previous weeks, although some areas only receiving light rains. Forecasts suggest that the second half of November might receive rainfall equal to or higher than the historical average for November in Brazil. 

The December to January contracts arbitrage between the New York and London markets broadened yesterday; to register this at 43.95 usc/Lb.  This equates to 40.71% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.  

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 12,263 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,195,244 bags, with 87.1% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,911,488 bags and the remaining 12.9% being held in the USA at a total of 283,756 bags.  There was a smaller in number increase to the number of bags pending grade to this exchange, by 10,192 bags; to register these pending grading stocks at 16,374 bags. 

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to decrease by 1,167 bags over the weeks of trade leading up to Monday 11th November, to see these stocks registered at 2,628,000 bags, on the day. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a firm sideways track for the day. The Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, Orange Juice, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Cotton, Copper, Wheat, Corn and Soybean markets ended the day on a softer note.   The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.2346 % higher; to see this index registered at 404.7108.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.284 to Sterling, at 1.100 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.170 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading around par, both markets maintained this modest stance into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed both the London and the New York markets started to attract buying support to accentuate the gains for the afternoon trade. Both the London and the New York markets maintained this firm track to close near the highs of the day. 

The London market ended the day on a positive note, and with 93.1% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note, and with 90.4% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This close might assist towards some degree of confidence and to set the markets on track for a steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                 NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

NOV   1374 + 40                                                           DEC    107.95 + 2.35  

JAN    1411 + 40                                                           MAR   111.15 + 2.25  

MAR   1428 + 36                                                           MAY   113.50 + 2.25

MAY   1445 + 34                                                           JUL    115.70 + 2.25

JUL    1462 + 31                                                           SEP    117.65 + 2.25

SEP    1477 + 26                                                           DEC   119.95 + 2.25

NOV   1493 + 23                                                           MAR   122.25 + 2.20

JAN    1513 + 23                                                           MAY   123.85 + 2.15

MAR   1537 + 23                                                           JUL    125.40 + 2.10