Coffee Market Report November 15 2019

Coffee trading in Vietnam has picked up slightly with the new October 2019 to September 2020 coffee year, main coffee harvest expected from mid-November. In the last week the tropical storm Nakri triggered floods in some parts of the countries coffee growing regions but it has been reported that there had been only a minor impact on the coffee crop. 

The December to January contracts arbitrage between the New York and London markets narrowed yesterday; to register this at 43.59 usc/Lb.  This equates to 40.34% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.  

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 1,765 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,193,479 bags, with 87.2% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,912,723 bags and the remaining 12.8% being held in the USA at a total of 280,756 bags.  There was a smaller in number decrease to the number of bags pending grade to this exchange, by 912 bags; to register these pending grading stocks at 15,462 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a firm sideways track for the day. Natural Gas, Cocoa, Coffee, Orange Juice, Corn, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a positive note, the Cotton market remained unchanged on the day, while the Oil, Sugar, Copper and Wheat markets ended the day on a softer note.   The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.1799 % higher; to see this index registered at 405.4389.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.288 to Sterling, at 1.102 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.196 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading around par, both markets maintained this firm modest stance into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the New York market started to attract selling pressure to fall into negative territory for the day, while the London market started to attract buying support to accentuate the gains for the afternoon trade. The New York market managed to bounce back from the lows of the day in late afternoon trade to close on a modest positive note. 

The London market ended the day on a modest positive note, and with 33.3% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise modest positive note, and with 6.3% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This close might assist towards some degree of confidence but with the Brazil Real slightly weaker one might not expect the markets are due for better than a hesitant steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                 NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

NOV   1384 + 10                                                           DEC    108.05 + 0.10  

JAN    1421 + 10                                                           MAR   111.50 + 0.35  

MAR   1440 + 12                                                           MAY   113.85 + 0.35

MAY   1457 + 12                                                           JUL    116.00 + 0.30

JUL    1474 + 12                                                           SEP    117.95 + 0.30

SEP    1490 + 13                                                           DEC   120.30 + 0.35

NOV   1506 + 13                                                           MAR   122.60 + 0.35

JAN    1525 + 12                                                           MAY   124.15 + 0.30

MAR   1548 + 11                                                           JUL    125.70 + 0.30