Coffee Market Report November 26 2019

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market decrease their net short sold position within the market by 21.13% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 19th November; to register a new net short sold position of 9,007 Lots.  Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market increased their net long position within the market by 6.62%, to register a net long position of 53,344 Lots on the day. 

Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market decreased their net short sold position within this market by 12.81%; to register a new net short sold position of 18,838 Lots. This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 5,340,490 bags has most likely been increased, following the period of mixed but overall firmer trade that has since followed and likewise, that of the Managed Money Fund sector of the market. 

The December to January contracts arbitrage between the New York and London markets broadened yesterday; to register this at 53.48 usc/Lb.  This equates to 45.40% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 1,883 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,146,612 bags, with 87.3% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,875,052 bags and the remaining 12.7% being held in the USA at a total of 271,560 bags.  There was a larger in number increase to the number of bags pending grade to this exchange, by 9,118 bags; to register these pending grading stocks at 61,564 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a positive sideways track for the day. The Oil, Natural Gas, Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice, Wheat and Corn markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Sugar, Cocoa, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note.   The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.3374% higher; to see this index registered at 405.0275.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.289 to Sterling, at 1.101 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.227 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading around par, both markets maintained this firm modest stance into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed Both the London and New York markets started to attract buying support to move further into positive territory for the day, both markets maintained this upward trend for the remainder of the afternoon trade. 

The London market ended the day on a positive note, and with 69.57% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note, and with 100% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This close, and with the Brazil Real marginally weaker against the US Dollar, one might expect the markets are due for only a near to steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                 NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

JAN    1418 + 16                                                          DEC   117.80 + 3.20

MAR   1436 + 16                                                          MAR   118.90 + 3.25

MAY   1450 + 15                                                          MAY   121.15 + 3.20

JUL    1468 + 15                                                          JUL    123.10 + 3.20

SEP    1485 + 13                                                          SEP    124.75 + 3.10

NOV   1504 + 12                                                          DEC    126.90 + 3.00

JAN    1524 + 12                                                          MAR   129.20 + 3.00

MAR   1548 + 12                                                          MAY   130.75 + 2.95

MAY   1571 + 12                                                          JUL    132.35 + 2.95