Coffee Market Report November 27 2019

The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority UCDA have reported that their country’s coffee exports for the month of October were 27,495 bags or 7.84% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 378,238 bags. This is the first month of the new October 2019 to September 2020 coffee year, the UCDA predict that exports will jump to 400,000 bags as the main harvest season in the central areas gets underway. 

The December to January contracts arbitrage between the New York and London markets broadened yesterday; to register this at 53.69 usc/Lb.  This equates to 46.40% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. 

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to decrease by 15,500 bags over the weeks of trade leading up to Monday 25th November, to see these stocks registered at 2,594,667 bags, on the day. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 2,310 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,148,922 bags, with 87.4% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,877,615 bags and the remaining 12.6% being held in the USA at a total of 271,307 bags.  There was a larger in number decrease to the number of bags pending grade to this exchange, by 7,641 bags; to register these pending grading stocks at 53,923 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a sideways track for the day. The Oil, Natural Gas, Cocoa, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Sugar, Coffee, Wheat, Corn and Soybean markets ended the day on a softer note.   The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.1769% higher; to see this index registered at 405.744.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.285 to Sterling, at 1.101 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.233 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading around par, both markets maintained this firm modest stance into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed Both the London and New York markets started to attract selling pressure to move into negative territory for the day. The London market continued to dip deeper into negative territory towards the close with the New York Market following suit in a more sedate manner. 

The London market ended the day on a very negative note, and with 89.47% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note, and with 75% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This close, and with the Brazil Real marginally weaker once again, does little to inspire confidence and one might expect the markets are due for only a hesitant near to steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                 NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

JAN    1367 – 51                                                           DEC   115.70 – 2.10

MAR   1391 – 45                                                           MAR   116.85 – 2.05

MAY   1405 – 45                                                           MAY   119.15 – 2.00

JUL    1425 – 43                                                           JUL     121.10 – 2.00

SEP    1443 – 42                                                           SEP    122.80 – 1.95

NOV   1463 – 41                                                           DEC    125.00 – 1.90

JAN    1485 – 39                                                           MAR   127.30 – 1.90

MAR   1509 – 39                                                           MAY   128.90 – 1.85

MAY   1532 – 39                                                           JUL    130.50 – 1.85