Coffee Market Report December 05 2019

The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee production for the month of November was 206,000 bags or 15.85% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 1,506,000 bags.   This has contributed to the countries cumulative production for the first two months of the present October 2019 to September 2020 coffee year to be 292,000 bags or 11.3% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 2,875,000 bags. 

The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have also reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of November were 59,000 bags or 4.71% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 1,194,000 bags.   This has contributed to the country’s cumulative coffee exports for the first two months of the present October 2019 to September 2020 coffee year to be 182,000 bags or 7.04% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 2,405,000 bags 

The Ivory Coast as west Africa’s leading robusta coffee producer, have reported that their coffee exports for the month of October were 28,550 bags or 29.04% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 126,850 bags.  This has contributed to their country’s cumulative coffee exports for the first ten months of 2019 to be 463,600 bags or 49.04% higher than the same period last year, at a total of 1,408,983 bags. 

The March to March contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday; to register this at 59.11 usc/Lb.  This equates to 48.75% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.   

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 3,693 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,060,041 bags, with 87.3% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,799,403 bags and the remaining 12.7% being held in the USA at a total of 260,638 bags.  There was a larger in number decrease to the number of bags pending grade to this exchange, by 4,979 bags; to register these pending grading stocks at 48,019 bags.

 The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to decrease by 44,333 bags over the weeks of trade leading up to Monday 2nd December, to see these stocks registered at 2,550,333 bags, on the day. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a sideways track for the day. The Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, Cotton, Copper, Wheat and Soybean markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Cocoa, Coffee, Orange Juice, Corn, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.1019% higher; to see this index registered at 403.5065.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.311 to Sterling, at 1.108 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.208 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading to the south of par, both markets maintained this modest soft stance into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed Both the London and New York markets started to attract buying support to move into modest positive territory for the day, only to encounter selling pressure late in the day to drop back into negative territory and accentuate the losses for the day. 

The London market ended the day on a negative note, and with 82.4% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note, and with 85% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This close does little to inspire confidence and one might expect to see little better than a near to steady start due for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                     NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

JAN    1347 – 45                                                              MAR   121.25 – 2.55

MAR   1370 – 42                                                              MAY   123.50 – 2.55

MAY   1387 – 41                                                              JUL    125.40 – 2.50

JUL    1405 – 40                                                              SEP    127.05 – 2.45

SEP    1423 – 40                                                              DEC   129.05 – 2.40

NOV   1445 – 39                                                              MAR   131.10 – 2.30

JAN    1467 – 38                                                              MAY   132.40 – 2.30

MAR   1491 – 37                                                              JUL    133.70 – 2.25

MAY   1514 – 36                                                              SEP    135.00 – 2.20