Coffee Market Report December 23 2019

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market increase their net long position within the market by 38.35% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 17th. December; to register a new net long position of 20,049 Lots which is the equivalent of 5,683,803 bags.  This position has most likely been further increased, following the period of mixed but overall firmer trade that has since followed. 

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market trim their net short sold position within the market by 19.98% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 17th. December; to register a short-sold position of 8,057 Lots.  This net short sold position is the equivalent of 1,342,833 bags and has most likely been further decreased, following the period of mixed though overall firmer trade that has since followed. 

The March to March contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened on Friday; to register this at 68.38 usc/Lb.  This equates to 52.32% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 2,907 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 2,027,157 bags, with 88.5% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total 1,794,363 bags and the remaining 11.5% being held in USA certified warehouses, at a total 232,794 bags.  There was meanwhile a larger in number decrease by 9,535 bags to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 15,298 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade on Friday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking a sideways track for the day. The Coffee, Cotton, Orange Juice, Corn, Soybean and Silver markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, Cocoa, Coper, Wheat and Gold markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.0003% higher; to see this index registered at 415.9714.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.301 to Sterling, at 1.108 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.102 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day on Friday trading on a modest positive note. Both markets maintained this positive track into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed both The New York market attracted buying support to move deeper into positive territory for the day, while the London market remained on its modest positive track for much of the afternoon trade. Both markets hit a ceiling to limit the gains for the day and close near to the highs of the day. 

The London market ended the day on a modest positive note, and with 31.82% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note, and with 90.91% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This positive close might assist towards some degree of confidence and to set the markets for near to steady hesitant start for early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                  NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

JAN    1341 + 2                                                            MAR   130.70 + 3.50

MAR   1374 + 7                                                            MAY   132.95 + 3.55

MAY   1392 + 7                                                            JUL    134.95 + 3.55

JUL    1411 + 7                                                            SEP    136.70 + 3.55

SEP    1428 + 5                                                            DEC   138.70 + 3.50

NOV   1447 + 5                                                            MAR   140.65 + 3.45

JAN    1466 + 5                                                            MAY   141.70 + 3.45

MAR   1490 + 5                                                            JUL    142.70 + 3.45

MAY   1513 + 5                                                            SEP    142.70 + 3.45