Coffee Market Report December 24 2019

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market increase their net long position within the market by 30.71% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 17th December; to register a new net long position of 38,013 Lots.  Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market increased their net long position within the market by 0.07%, to register a net long position of 62,252 Lots on the day. 

Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market increase their net long position within the market by 38.35%; to register a new net long position of 20,049 Lots which is the equivalent of 5,683,803 bags.  This position has most likely been further increased, following the period of mixed but overall firmer trade that has since followed. 

The March to March contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday; to register this at 64.75 usc/Lb.  This equates to 51.68% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.   

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 1,180 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,028,337 bags, with 88.5% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total 1,795,543 bags and the remaining 11.5% being held in USA certified warehouses, at a total 232,794 bags.  There was meanwhile a larger in number decrease by 5,119 bags to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 10,179 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking a sideways track for the day. The Oil, Natural Gas, Cocoa, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice, Corn, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Sugar, Coffee and Wheat markets ended the day on a softer note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.0923% lower; to see this index registered at 415.5874.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.294 to Sterling, at 1.109 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.083 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading on a modest positive note. Both markets maintained this positive track into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed both The New York and the London markets started to attract selling pressure to move into negative territory and accentuate the losses for the day. Both the London and the New York markets continued on the negative track to end the day near to the lows of the day. 

The London market ended the day on a very negative note, and with 92.86% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note, and with 93.1% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This soft and lacklustre close does little to inspire confidence and one might expect little better than a near to steady start due for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                  NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

JAN    1296 – 45                                                             MAR   125.30 – 5.40

MAR   1335 – 39                                                             MAY   127.50 – 5.45

MAY   1355 – 37                                                             JUL    129.55 – 5.40

JUL    1374 – 37                                                             SEP    131.30 – 5.40

SEP    1391 – 37                                                             DEC   133.35 – 5.35

NOV   1410 – 37                                                             MAR   135.35 – 5.30

JAN    1428 – 38                                                             MAY   136.40 – 5.30

MAR   1452 – 38                                                             JUL    137.40 – 5.30

MAY   1475 – 38                                                             SEP    138.35 – 5.35

 

The Team at I & M Smith take this opportunity to wish you and your families, all the very best for this festive season and health and prosperity for the coming year.