Coffee Market Report December 31 2019

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market increase their net long position within the market by 7.45% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 24th. December; to register a new net long position of 21,543 Lots which is the equivalent of 6,107,345 bags.  This position has most likely been further increased, following the period of mixed but overall firmer trade that has since followed. 

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market increase their net short sold position within the market by 61.61% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 24th. December; to register a short-sold position of 13,021 Lots.  This net short sold position is the equivalent of 2,170,167 bags and has most likely been further increased, following the period of mixed though overall firmer trade that has since followed. 

The March to March contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened yesterday; to register this at 69.78 usc/Lb.  This equates to 52.80% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.   

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to remain unchanged yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,031,274 bags, with 88.5% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,798,480 bags and the remaining 11.5% being held in the USA at a total of 232,794 bags.  There was meanwhile a larger in number increase by 123,159 bags to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 129,852 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a soft sideways track for the day. The Cotton, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Orange Juice, Wheat and Corn markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.0456% higher; to see this index registered at 420.7339.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.311 to Sterling, at 1.120 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.020 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading in modest negative territory, both markets maintained this soft stance into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the London and New York markets started to attract selling pressure to move further into negative territory, only to hit a floor and limit the losses for the day, both markets maintained this modest soft trend to close near to par for the day. 

The London market ended the day on a modest negative note, and with 48% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on likewise modest negative note, and with 12.96% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This soft close might does little to inspire confidence and one might expect the markets are due for little better than a hesitant steady start for early trade today, against the prices set on yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                  NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

JAN    1347 – 12                                                              MAR   132.15 – 0.35

MAR   1375 – 12                                                              MAY   134.35 – 0.30

MAY   1392 – 12                                                              JUL    136.45 – 0.30

JUL    1411 – 12                                                              SEP    138.25 – 0.30

SEP    1429 – 12                                                              DEC   140.25 – 0.30

NOV   1448 – 11                                                              MAR   142.30 – 0.25

JAN    1466 – 10                                                              MAY   143.30 – 0.25

MAR   1490 – 9                                                                JUL    144.20 – 0.25

MAY   1512 – 9                                                                SEP    145.10 – 0.30 

The team at I & M Smith (Pty) Ltd., take this opportunity to wish you an exciting New Year’s Eve Celebration and Health and Prosperity for the coming year.