Coffee Market Report January 03 2020

The Brazil government have reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of December were 937,499 bags or 22.87% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 3,161,900 bags. The large decrease in reported exports for this month due to the larger biennial bearing production in 2018 coffee year, to similarly reflect the increased exports of Conilons robustas, to consumer markets over the same month in the previous year. 

The National Coffee Institute of Costa Rica have reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of December were 9.6% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 35,790 bags. This they say has contributed to the cumulative coffee exports for the first three months of the present October 2019 to September 2020 coffee year to be 27% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 61,417 bags. 

The National Coffee Institute of Honduras have reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of December were 4.1% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 339,608 bags. This they say has contributed to the cumulative coffee exports for the first three months of the present October 2019 to September 2020 coffee year to be 8.3% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 521,411 bags. 

The March to March contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday; to register this at 64.50 usc/Lb.  This equates to 50.75% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.   

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen remain unchanged yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,032,149 bags, with 88.5% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,799,413 bags and the remaining 11.5% being held in the USA at a total of 232,736 bags.  There was meanwhile a larger in number increase by 1,982 bags to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 133,381 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking an upward sideways track for the day. The Oil, Natural Gas, Cotton, Copper, Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee and Orange Juice markets ended the day on a softer track.   The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.4469% higher; to see this index registered at 422.3244   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.312 to Sterling, at 1.117 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.025 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading close to par on a modest negative note, both markets maintained this modest soft stance into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the New York market encountered selling pressure to accentuate the losses for the day while the London market continued on its modest soft track for much of the afternoon. The London market hit a price floor and bounced back from the lows of the day to limit the losses for the afternoon trade. 

The London market ended the day on a modest negative note, and with 14.3% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on likewise negative note, and with 81.25% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This soft close does little to inspire confidence and one might expect the markets are due for little better than a hesitant steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                  NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

MAR   1380 – 2                                                               MAR   127.10 – 2.60

MAY   1397 – 3                                                               MAY   129.40 – 2.50

JUL    1415 – 3                                                               JUL    131.45 – 2.50

SEP    1433 – 3                                                               SEP    133.30 – 2.50

NOV   1451 – 3                                                                DEC   135.60 – 2.35

JAN    1469 – 3                                                               MAR   137.90 – 2.15

MAR   1493 – 2                                                               MAY   138.85 – 2.20

MAY   1516 – 1                                                               JUL    139.70 – 2.25

JUL    1537 + 2                                                               SEP    140.60 – 2.25