Coffee Market Report January 08 2020

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market decrease their net long position within the market by 4.80% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 31st. December; to register a new net long position of 41,107 Lots.  Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market decreased their net long position within the market by 0.13%, to register a net long position of 64,273 Lots on the day. 

Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market increase their net long position within the market by 0.4%; to register a new net long position of 21,628 Lots which is the equivalent of 6,131,442 bags.  This position has most likely been further increased, following the period of mixed but overall firmer trade that has since followed. 

The March to March contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday; to register this at 60.53 usc/Lb.  This equates to 49.45% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.   

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 13,156 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,041,488 bags, with 88.3% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,802,652 bags and the remaining 11.7% being held in the USA at a total of 238,836 bags.  There was meanwhile a larger in number decrease by 19,131 bags to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 137,967 bags. 

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to decrease by 15,333 bags over the weeks of trade leading up to Monday 6th January, to see these stocks registered at 2,491,833 bags, on the day. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a sideways track for the day. The Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Orange Juice, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a positive note, the Wheat market remained unchanged on the day, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, Cotton, Corn and Soybean markets ended the day on a softer note.   The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.2184% higher; to see this index registered at 422.4961   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.312 to Sterling, at 1.115 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.068 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading close to par on a modest positive note, both markets maintained this modest firm stance into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed both the London and the New York markets encountered selling pressure to set the markets on a soft track and accentuate the losses for the day. Late in the afternoon trade both the London and the New York markets gained buying support to move back into modest positive territory for the close. 

The London market ended the day on a modest positive note, and with 92.3% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on likewise modest positive note, and with 100% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This close and with a marginally firmer Brazil Real in play is likely to inspire a follow through hesitant steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                  NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

MAR   1364 + 12                                                               MAR   122.40 + 0.25

MAY   1380 + 9                                                                 MAY   124.70 + 0.20

JUL    1399 + 9                                                                 JUL     126.95 + 0.30

SEP    1418 + 9                                                                 SEP    128.90 + 0.25

NOV   1436 + 9                                                                 DEC    131.50 + 0.30

JAN    1453 + 9                                                                 MAR   133.90 + 0.30

MAR   1475 + 8                                                                 MAY   134.95 + 0.25

MAY   1497 + 7                                                                 JUL    135.80 + 0.25

JUL    1518 + 7                                                                 SEP    136.60 + 0.25