Coffee Market Report January 13 2020

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market decrease their net long position within the market by 3.34% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 7th. January; to register a new net long position of 20,907 Lots which is the equivalent of 5,927,042 bags.  This position has most likely been further decreased, following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed. 

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market increase their net short sold position within the market by 17.22% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 7th. January; to register a short-sold position of 17,331 Lots.  This net short sold position is the equivalent of 2,888,500 bags and has most likely been further increased, following the period of mixed though overall sideways trade that has since followed. 

The March to March contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened on Friday; to register this at 57.94 usc/Lb.  This equates to 48.71% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.  

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 4,004 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 2,065,315 bags, with 88.5% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,827,275 bags and the remaining 11.5% being held in the USA at a total of 238,040 bags.  There was meanwhile a smaller in number decrease by 13,832 bags to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 172,295 bags. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade on Friday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a firm sideways track for the day. The Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Orange Juice, Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Oil and Natural Gas markets ended the day on a softer note.    The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.5702% higher; to see this index registered at 420.9444   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.303 to Sterling, at 1.113 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.096 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day on Friday trading close to par on a modest negative note, both markets maintained this modest soft stance into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed both the London and the New York markets gained buying support to move into modest positive territory, both markets would continue on this modest positive track for the remainder of the days trade. 

The London market ended the day on a positive note, and with 70% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on likewise positive note, and with 88.8% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This modest firm close might assist towards some degree of confidence and one might think the markets are due only a hesitant steady start for early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                    NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

MAR   1345 + 7                                                               MAR   117.35 + 1.60

MAY   1362 + 6                                                                MAY   119.70 + 1.60

JUL    1380 + 6                                                                JUL     122.00 + 1.60

SEP    1400 + 7                                                               SEP     124.05 + 1.65

NOV   1419 + 7                                                                DEC    126.70 + 1.60

JAN    1436 + 7                                                                MAR   129.05 + 1.65

MAR   1457 + 7                                                                MAY   130.10 + 1.65

MAY   1479 + 6                                                                JUL    130.95 + 1.65

JUL    1501 + 7                                                                SEP    131.75 + 1.65