Coffee Market Report January 15 2020

The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee production for the month of December was 397,000 bags or 30.94% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 1,680,000 bags.   This has contributed to the countries cumulative production for the first three months of the present October 2019 to September 2020 coffee year to be 86,000 bags or 24.15% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 4,555,000 bags. 

The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have also reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of December were 44,000 bags or 3.3% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 1,378,000 bags.   This has contributed to the country’s cumulative coffee exports for the first three months of the present October 2019 to September 2020 coffee year to be 120,000 bags or 3.28% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 3,783,000 bags. 

The March to March contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday; to register this at 55.03 usc/Lb.  This equates to 47.90% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.   

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 10,346 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,078,645 bags, with 88.5% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,839,430 bags and the remaining 11.5% being held in the USA at a total of 239,215 bags.  There was meanwhile a smaller in number decrease by 8,747 bags to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 152,304 bags. 

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to decrease by 23,333 bags over the weeks of trade leading up to Monday 13th January, to see these stocks registered at 2,468,500 bags, on the day. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a sideways track for the day. The Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Orange Juice, and Wheat markets ended the day on a positive note, the Soybean market remained unchanged on the day, while the Cotton, Corn, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note.    The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.4422% higher; to see this index registered at 420.6102   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.303 to Sterling, at 1.113 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.133 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading close to par on a modest positive note, both markets maintained this positive stance into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed both the London market started to attract buying support to accentuate the gains for the day, only to hit a ceiling for the day and drop back to close on a modest positive note, the New York market closed on a likewise modest positive note. 

The London market ended the day on a modest positive note, and with 27.6% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on likewise modest positive note, and with 35% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This close and with the Brazil Real marginally firmer might assist towards some degree of confidence to set the markets for a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:  

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                    NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

MAR   1320 + 8                                                                 MAR   114.90 + 0.35

MAY   1338 + 9                                                                 MAY   117.25 + 0.35

JUL    1356 + 8                                                                 JUL     119.55 + 0.30

SEP    1375 + 7                                                                SEP     121.65 + 0.30

NOV   1394 + 7                                                                 DEC    124.25 + 0.25

JAN    1411 + 7                                                                 MAR   126.65 + 0.25

MAR   1433 + 7                                                                 MAY   127.70 + 0.25

MAY   1456 + 7                                                                 JUL    128.55 + 0.30

JUL    1479 + 7                                                                 SEP    129.35 + 0.30