Coffee Market Report January 21 2020

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market decrease their net long position within the market by 18.69% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 14th. January; to register a new net long position of 33,118 Lots.  Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market decreased their net long position within the market by 3.33%, to register a net long position of 61,873 Lots on the day. 

Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market decreased their net long position within the market by 20.10%; to register a new net long position of 16,708 Lots which is the equivalent of 4,736,644 bags.  This position has most likely been further decreased, following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed. 

The March to March contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened yesterday; to register this at 55.26 usc/Lb.  This equates to 48.28 % price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.   

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 13,212 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 2,115,340 bags, with 88.7% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,876,100 bags and the remaining 11.3% being held in the USA at a total of 239,240 bags.  There was meanwhile a smaller in number decrease by 10,814 bags to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 119,755 bags. 

With the U.S.A. commodity markets off the field of play yesterday, the remaining markets had a quiet day yesterday, but with the overall commodity index for these markets showing a degree of buoyancy.  The Oil, Natural Gas, Copper, Wheat, Corn and Soybean markets ended the day on a positive note, the Gold market remained unchanged on the day, while the London robusta Coffee and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets was 0.6% higher on Friday; to see this index registered at 419.9071.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.302 to Sterling, at 1.110 to the Euro and with the dollar buying 4.190 Brazilian Real. 

The London market started the day yesterday trading close to par and remaining so for most of the day’s trade, before coming under pressure in late in the day trade and falling back into what would be considered to be modest negative territory. 

The London market ended the day on a negative note and with 87.5% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market was close for the day.   This close does little to indicate direction for the day today, which is likely to see the markets due for a hesitant near to steady start for early trade today, against the prices set in London yesterday and New York on Friday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                         NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

MAR   1319 – 14                                                                  MAR   112.15 – 0.80

MAY   1337 – 13                                                                  MAY   114.45 – 0.80

JUL    1358 – 13                                                                   JUL     116.75 – 0.80

SEP    1378 – 13                                                                  SEP     118.85 – 0.80

NOV   1396 – 12                                                                   DEC    121.50 – 0.80

JAN    1414 – 12                                                                   MAR   123.95 – 0.75

MAR   1436 – 12                                                                   MAY   125.15 – 0.70

MAY   1459 – 12                                                                   JUL    126.20 – 0.65

JUL    1482 – 12                                                                   SEP    127.20 – 0.55