Coffee Market Report January 27 2020

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market decrease their net long position within the market by 17.95% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 21st. January; to register a new net long position of 13,709 Lots which is the equivalent of 3,886,441 bags.  This position has most likely been further decreased, following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed. 

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market increase their net short sold position within the market by 11.87% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 21st. January; to register a short-sold position of 25,259 Lots.  This net short sold position is the equivalent of 4,209,83 bags and has most likely been further increased, following the period of mixed though overall sideways trade that has since followed. 

The March to March contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday; to register this at 50.32 usc/Lb.  This equates to 45.68 % price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.   

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 10,692 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 2,156,139 bags, with 89% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,918,749 bags and the remaining 11% being held in the USA at a total of 237,195 bags.  There was meanwhile a larger in number decrease by 23,281 bags to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 80,037 bags. 

The commodity markets were soft in trade on Friday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a soft sideways track for the day. The Orange Juice, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Wheat, Corn and Soybean markets ended the day on a softer note.    The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.9578% lower; to see this index registered at 410.5147   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.306 to Sterling, at 1.103 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.183 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day on Friday trading on a modest positive note. Both markets maintained this positive track into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed both The New York and the London markets started to attract selling pressure to move into negative territory and accentuate the losses for the day. Both the London and the New York markets continued on the negative track to close the day near to the lows of the day. 

The London market ended the day on a negative note and with 94.11% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note and with 89.1% of the earlier losses of the day intact.  This soft and lacklustre close does little to inspire confidence and one might expect little better than a near to steady start due for early trade today, against the prices on Friday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                         NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

MAR   1319 – 48                                                                    MAR   110.15 – 2.45

MAY   1336 – 38                                                                    MAY    112.40 – 2.40

JUL    1355 – 36                                                                    JUL     114.65 – 2.40

SEP    1374 – 35                                                                   SEP     116.70 – 2.45

NOV   1392 – 35                                                                    DEC    119.40 – 2.40

JAN    1409 – 36                                                                    MAR   122.05 – 2.35

MAR   1427 – 36                                                                    MAY   123.35 – 2.30

MAY   1449 – 37                                                                    JUL    124.50 – 2.30

JUL    1472 – 38                                                                    SEP    125.60 – 2.30