Coffee Market Report January 30 2020

The Ivory Coast as west Africa’s leading robusta coffee producer, have reported that their coffee exports for the month of December were 25,967 bags or 19.82% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 157,000 bags.  This has contributed to their country’s cumulative coffee exports for the 2019 calendar year to be 522,517 bags or 40.96% higher than the same period last year, at a total of 1,798,167 bags. 

The March to March contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday; to register this at 42.95 usc/Lb.  This equates to 42.1 % price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. 

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 4,370 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,170,666 bags, with 89.2% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,936,066 bags and the remaining 10.8% being held in the USA at a total of 234,600 bags.  There was meanwhile a larger in number decrease by 22,026 bags to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 27,081 bags. 

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to decrease by 8,000 bags over the weeks of trade leading up to Monday 27th January, to see these stocks registered at 2,417,500 bags, on the day. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a sideways track for the day. The Oil, Cocoa, Orange Juice, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Natural Gas, Sugar, Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Wheat, Corn and Soybean markets ended the day on a softer note.    The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.7691% higher; to see this index registered at 402.4424   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.301 to Sterling, at 1.101 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.230 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading close to par on a modest positive note. Both markets maintained this sideways track into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed both the London and the New York markets attracted selling pressure to drop into negative territory and accentuate the losses for the days trade. Both markets hit a price floor and closed near to the lows for the day. 

The London market ended the day on a negative note and with 92.31% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note and with 95.24% of the earlier losses of the day intact.  This soft close does little to inspire confidence and with a marginally softer Brazil Real in play one would expect the markets are due for little better than a hesitant steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                           NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

MAR   1303 – 24                                                                      MAR   102.05 – 3.00

MAY   1317 – 20                                                                      MAY    104.25 – 3.05

JUL    1336 – 18                                                                      JUL     106.55 –3.00

SEP    1355 – 17                                                                     SEP     108.60 – 3.05

NOV   1375 – 15                                                                      DEC    111.40 – 3.00

JAN    1392 – 15                                                                      MAR   114.20 – 2.95

MAR   1411 – 15                                                                      MAY   115.80 – 2.95

MAY   1433 – 16                                                                      JUL    117.25 – 2.85

JUL    1458 – 16                                                                      SEP    118.45 – 2.85