Coffee Market Report February 05 2020

The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee production for the month of January was 246,000 bags or 18.98% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 1,050,000 bags.   This has contributed to the countries cumulative production for the first four months of the present October 2019 to September 2020 coffee year to be 640,000 bags or 12.89% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 5,605,000 bags. 

The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have also reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of January were 65,000 bags or 5.6% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 1,101,000 bags.   This has contributed to the country’s cumulative coffee exports for the first four months of the present October 2019 to September 2020 coffee year to be 17,000 bags or 0.35% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 4,884,000 bags. 

The March to March contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened yesterday; to register this at 40.45 usc/Lb.  This equates to 41.21 % price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.  

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 9,931 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,165,770 bags, with 89.4% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,935,193 bags and the remaining 10.6% being held in the USA at a total of 230,577 bags.  There was meanwhile a larger in number increase by 11,131 bags to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 24,542 bags. 

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to decrease by 1,000 bags over the weeks of trade leading up to Monday 3rd. February, to see these stocks registered at 2,416,500 bags, on the day. 

The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a firm sideways track for the day. The Natural Gas, Cocoa, New York Arabica Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Wheat, Corn and Soybean markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Oil, Sugar, London Robusta Coffee, Orange Juice and Gold markets ended the day on a softer note.    The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.0531% higher; to see this index registered at 395.1789   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.302 to Sterling, at 1.104 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.255 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading on close to par on a modest positive note, both markets encountered buying support to move deeper into positive territory into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed both the London and the New York gained buying support to accentuate the gains for the day’s trade, both markets fell back off the highs of the day’s trade. The London market closed on a modest negative note for the day, while the New York market closed on a modest positive note for the day. 

The London market ended the day on a modest negative note and with 90% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a modest positive note and with 6.5% of the earlier gains of the day intact.  This mixed close and with the Brazil Real marginally softer, one might expect the markets are due only a hesitant steady start for early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                           NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

MAR   1272 – 18                                                                       MAR     98.15 + 0.25

MAY   1290 – 12                                                                       MAY   100.35 + 0.15

JUL    1310 – 11                                                                       JUL     102.60+ 0.10

SEP    1330 – 11                                                                      SEP    104.75 + 0.15

NOV   1340 – 10                                                                       DEC   107.55 + 0.10

JAN    1368 – 9                                                                         MAR  110.40 + 0.10

MAR   1388 – 9                                                                         MAY  112.00 + 0.10

MAY   1410 – 9                                                                         JUL    113.40 + 0.10

JUL    1433 – 10                                                                       SEP    114.60  unch