Coffee Market Report March 11 2020

The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil Cecafé have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of February were 25.7% lower than the same month last year, to total 2.4 million bags.   This they say has contributed to the country’s cumulative coffee exports for the first five months of the October 2019 to September 2020 Coffee year to be 14.11 million bags. 

Cecafé also reported that in February the world’s largest producer shipped 2.2 million bags of Arabica Coffee, this figure 28% lower than the same month last year and 200,000 bags of Robusta Coffee. 

The May to May contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened yesterday; to register this at 56.34 usc/Lb.  This equates to 49.27% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.   

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 275 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,111,307 bags, with 89.8% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,895,840 bags and the remaining 10.2% being held in the USA at a total of 215,467 bags.  There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 0 bags. 

The commodity markets were firmer in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a positive sideways track for the day. The Cocoa and Coffee markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Sugar market ended the day on a softer note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 2.2735% higher; to see this index registered at 373.7462.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.293 to Sterling, at 1.135 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.643 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading on a very positive note, both markets continued on this buoyant positive track into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the New York market hit a ceiling and started to attract selling pressure to drop back slightly off the highs of the day and settle on a very positive note. The London market followed suit in a more sedate manner to see the market settle on a positive note for the day. 

The London market ended the day on a very positive note and with 74.4% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise very positive note and with 74.1% of the earlier gains of the day intact.  This positive close and with the Brazil Real showing some marginal degree of buoyancy, might inspire some degree of confidence, to set the markets for a follow-through hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:   

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                             NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                                

MAY   1279 + 32                                                                         MAY  114.35 + 5.15

JUL    1297 + 35                                                                         JUL    116.15 + 5.00

SEP    1316 + 33                                                                        SEP    118.00 + 4.90

NOV   1335 + 32                                                                         DEC   120.40 + 4.85

JAN    1352 + 30                                                                         MAR  122.55 + 4.80

MAR   1366 + 28                                                                         MAY  123.75 + 4.90

MAY   1383 + 25                                                                         JUL    124.80 + 4.95

JUL    1402 + 22                                                                         SEP    125.80 + 4.95