Coffee Market Report March 23 2020

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this increase their net short sold position within the market by 133% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 17th. March; to register a new net short position of 3,820 Lots which is the equivalent of 1,082,953 bags.  This position has most likely been increased, following the period of positive trade that has since followed. 

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market decrease their net short sold position within the market by 6.8% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 17th. March; to register a short-sold position of 37,453 Lots.  This net short sold position is the equivalent of 6,242,166 bags and has most likely been further decreased, following the period of mixed sideways trade that has since followed. 

The May to May contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened on Friday; to register this at 63.27 usc/Lb.  This equates to 52.86% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.   

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 18,064 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 2,057,878 bags, with 90.4% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,860,440 bags and the remaining 9.6% being held in the USA at a total of 197,438 bags.  There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 0 bags. 

The commodity markets were firmer in trade on Friday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a sideways track for the day. The Cocoa, Coffee and Sugar markets ended the day on a positive note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.2329% higher; to see this index registered at 327.8557.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady, trading at 1.169 to Sterling, at 1.075 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.0627 Brazilian Real. 

The London and New York markets started the day on Friday trading on a positive note, both markets continued on this firm track into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed the London market attracted selling pressure to drop into negative territory for the day but to recover late in the day to close on a positive note, while the New York market started to attract buying support to move deeper into positive territory only to hit a ceiling a drop back to see the New York market close on a positive note. 

The London market ended the day on a positive note and with 87.5% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note and with 95.2% of the earlier gains of the day intact.  This positive close might inspire some degree of confidence to possibly set the markets for a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows: 

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                               NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                               

MAY   1244 + 28                                                                         MAY  119.70 + 7.00

JUL    1272 + 28                                                                         JUL    119.75 + 6.30

SEP    1292 + 25                                                                         SEP   120.10 + 5.65

NOV   1312 + 25                                                                         DEC   120.95 + 5.25

JAN    1330 + 26                                                                         MAR  122.20 + 4.85

MAR   1345 + 27                                                                         MAY  123.25 + 4.80

MAY   1360 + 27                                                                         JUL    124.10 + 4.75

JUL    1380 + 27                                                                         SEP    124.90 + 4.85