Coffee Market Report April 01 2020

The Indonesian government trade data from Sumatra, which is the leading coffee producing island within Indonesia, has reported that the islands robusta coffee exports for the month of March were 47,437 bags or 43.4% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 156,827 bags.  This contributes to the islands cumulative robusta coffee exports for the first six months of the present October 2019 to September 2020 coffee year to be 458,379 bags or 45.9% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 1,457,594 bags. 

The Ivory Coast as west Africa’s leading robusta coffee producer, have reported that their coffee exports for the month of February were 49,667 bags or 53.4% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 43,300 bags.  This has contributed to their country’s cumulative coffee exports for the first two months of 2020 to be 40,683 bags or 34.5% lower than the same period last year, at a total of 77,133 bags. 

The May to May contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened yesterday; to register this at 65.75 usc/Lb.  This equates to 55% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.    

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 5,350 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,979,740 bags, with 90.6% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,789,983 bags and the remaining 9.6% being held in the USA at a total of 189,757 bags.  There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 40,157 bags.  

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to decrease by 13,333 bags over the weeks of trade leading up to Monday 30th. March, to see these stocks registered at 2,398,000 bags, on the day. 

The commodity markets were marginally firmer in trade yesterday, to see overall macro commodity index taking a sideways track for the day. The New York Arabica Coffee market ended the day on a positive note, while the Cocoa, London Robusta Coffee and Sugar markets ended the day on a negative note.  The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.2118% lower; to see this index registered at 339.0512.   The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and showing some degree of buoyancy, trading at 1.235 to Sterling, at 1.100 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.205 Brazilian Real.   

The London and New York market started the day yesterday trading close to par, the London market slipped into negative territory for the early afternoon trade, while the New York market continued to trade close to par. As the afternoon progressed both the London and the New York markets started to attract selling pressure to move deeper onto a negative track for the day, only to hit a floor and bounce back from the lows of the day to see the London market close on a softer note and the New York market close on a modest positive note. 

The London market ended the day on a negative note and with 38.6% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a modest positive note and with 22.7% of the earlier gains of the day intact.  This mixed close does little to provide anything in the way of direction and one might think the markets are due little better than a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:  

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                    NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.                                              

MAY   1186 – 17                                                                       MAY  119.55 + 0.25 

JUL    1222 – 15                                                                       JUL    120.35 + 0.25 

SEP    1245 – 14                                                                       SEP   121.05 + 0.15  

NOV   1263 – 11                                                                       DEC   122.25 + 0.40 

JAN    1279 – 11                                                                       MAR  123.40 + 0.40 

MAR   1294 – 11                                                                      MAY  124.30 + 0.30 

MAY   1313 – 12                                                                    JUL    125.05 + 0.35

JUL    1335 – 13                                                                       SEP    125.90 + 0.45